Gremio vs Sport Recife prediction, H2H and probable lineups — August 11, 2025
On August 11, 2025, the Brazilian Serie A will feature a clash between Gremio and Sport Recife. The match is scheduled to kick off at 01:30 Central European Time. Let’s break down the odds and offer a pick for the winner of this encounter.
Gremio
Gremio approaches this home fixture against one of the league’s strugglers in less-than-ideal form—over their last seven league matches, they’ve managed just one win, two draws, and suffered four defeats. Gremio currently sits 14th in the standings, just two points off the international tournament spots and a distant 17 points behind leaders Flamengo. Their last three league games ended with two identical 0-1 losses—first away to Palmeiras, then Fluminense—and a 2-1 home victory over Fortaleza. Recent Gremio matches have been low-scoring affairs: five of their last six have finished under 2.5 goals.
However, at home, Gremio has looked far more convincing and is unbeaten in 11 consecutive matches on their own turf.
On the other hand, Gremio’s cup runs have been disappointing. In the Copa Sudamericana, they were knocked out in the round of 32 by Alianza Lima, losing 1-3 on aggregate, and exited the Copa do Brasil at the same stage against CSA.
As for their home head-to-heads with Sport Recife, Gremio has encountered some difficulties. In their last six home meetings, they’ve only managed two wins while suffering four defeats. All these encounters were high-scoring, finishing with over 2.5 total goals.
- See also: Argentinos Juniors vs Union de Santa Fe prediction, H2H and probable lineups — August 11, 2025
Sport Recife
Sport Recife is enduring a torrid spell and has yet to adapt to the demands of Brazil’s Serie A, remaining rooted to the bottom of the table. This season, they have not won a single match—just 6 points from a handful of draws. The team has already conceded 25 goals and scored just 9. Occupying 20th place, Sport Recife continues their winless run, which now stretches to 19 matches across all competitions.
Still, there has been some minor improvement in recent weeks—the team is unbeaten in three straight, drawing 2-2 away at Vitoria, then 2-2 at home against Santos, and 0-0 with Bahia. However, attacking woes persist: in seven of their last ten matches, Sport Recife has failed to find the net.
Interestingly, head-to-head stats against Gremio slightly favor Sport Recife. In the last 10 meetings, they’ve claimed 5 wins, drawn 3 times, and lost only twice.
Probable lineups
- Gremio: Tiago Volpi, Joao Lucas, Wagner Leonardo, Jemerson, Marlon, Dodi, Villasanti, Freitas dos Santos, Alisson, Braithwaite, Pavon.
- Sport Recife: Gabriel, Mateus Alexandre, Rafael Thyere, Ramon Menezes, Igor Cariús, Rivera, Ze Lucas, Lucas Lima, Cristian Barletta, Ramirez, Derik Lacerda.
Key facts and head-to-head
- Gremio have failed to win 6 of their last 7 matches.
- 11 of Gremio’s last 13 matches ended with under 2.5 goals.
- Sport Recife have failed to win 20 of their last 21 matches.
- Sport Recife have lost 6 of their last 7 away games.
- 3 of Sport Recife’s last 4 away matches ended with under 2.5 goals.
- Sport Recife are unbeaten in 7 of their last 8 head-to-head meetings.
- Sport Recife have won 3 of their last 4 away head-to-head matches.
Gremio vs Sport Recife match prediction
Despite recent struggles, Gremio clearly holds the upper hand in this matchup. They are far more assured at home and boast a strong unbeaten streak on their own ground. Sport Recife, meanwhile, remain mired in crisis—winless for a lengthy period and bottom of the table. Their prolonged drought and lack of attacking threat suggest they’ll find it extremely tough in this fixture. My pick for this match: Gremio to win at odds of 1.85.
