Dresden vs Mainz: Who will advance to the next round of the German Cup?

Dynamo Dresden vs Mainz 05 prediction Photo: https://x.com/1FSVMainz05
Dynamo Dresden Dynamo Dresden
DFB-Pokal Germany (Round 1) 18 aug 2025, 12:00
Finished
0 : 1
Germany, Dresden, Rudolf Harbig Stadion
22'
Nadiem Amiri

In the 1/32 finals of the German Cup, Dresden will host Mainz on their home turf. The clash is set for Monday, August 18, kicking off at 18:00 CET. Let’s break down my pick for the winner in this showdown.

Dresden vs Mainz: Match preview

Dresden, a representative of the 2. Bundesliga, has already kicked off the new season in their league, though the start has been less than stellar. They lost their opener to Greuther Fürth 2-3, then suffered another setback against Magdeburg 1-2. Last season, the team played in the 3. Liga and secured promotion. In friendlies, they won their first two matches, but then went on a four-game winless streak with a draw and three defeats. They’ve failed to keep a clean sheet in five consecutive games, conceding two goals in each of their last four outings.

Mainz, competing in the top flight, had a fantastic campaign last season, finishing sixth and earning a spot in the UEFA Conference League qualifiers. Their opponent will be Norwegian side Rosenborg. That means this cup tie against Dresden will be Mainz’s first official match of the new season. During preseason, they played five friendlies, racking up four wins and a draw. They look well-prepared and highly motivated to make a statement in their season opener.

Match facts and head-to-head

  • Dresden are winless in four straight matches: three losses and a draw.
  • Dresden have conceded at least two goals in each of their last four games.
  • Mainz are unbeaten in eight matches: five wins and two draws.
  • These teams have never faced each other in official competition.

Probable lineups

  • Dynamo Dresden: Schreiber; Faber, Boeder, Bünning, Risch; Amoako, Sapina; Lemmer, Fröling, Kother; Daferner
  • Mainz: Zentner; Kohr, Costa, Leitsch; Caci, Amiri, Sano, Mwene; Hollerbach, Nebel, Lee

Prediction

Dresden are coming from a lower division and have stumbled out of the gate this season. Mainz enjoyed an excellent preseason and, in my opinion, will be more motivated to claim victory here and kick off their campaign in style. My pick: Mainz to win at odds of 1.88.

Prediction on game Win Mainz 05
Odds: 1.88
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