Crystal Palace vs AEK Larnaca: prediction, head-to-head and probable lineups – 12 March 2026
The Conference League round of 16 clash between England’s Crystal Palace and Cyprus’s AEK Larnaca will take place on Thursday, March 12, at Selhurst Park in London. As things stand, Oliver Glasner’s Eagles are among the main favorites to lift the trophy, while the Cypriots are hoping to pull off another upset.
Match preview
Crystal Palace, under Oliver Glasner’s stewardship, have hit their stride. Just a week ago, the Eagles produced a brilliant Premier League display, beating Tottenham 3-1 thanks to an Ismaïla Sarr brace. Their European campaign has been a tough road, coming through the play-offs with a hard-fought victory over Bosnia’s Zrinjski (1-1, 2-0). Glasner has instilled an intense pressing game, which is paying dividends: defender Maxence Lacroix and forward Evann Guessand have emerged as key figures in their recent successes.
However, the hosts have some notable absences. As of now, it’s confirmed that defender Daniel Muñoz, midfielder Cheick Doucouré, and forwards Eddie Nketiah and Jean-Philippe Mateta are sidelined through injury. This forces the coaching staff to rely on an attacking trio of Sarr, Larsen, and Guessand. For Crystal Palace, this match is not just a battle for a quarter-final spot, but also one of pride after a disappointing group stage campaign.
AEK Larnaca have changed managers, with Spaniard Javier Perez Rozada replacing compatriot Imanol Idiakez. AEK are the tournament’s true dark horses. The Cypriots have already shown they can go toe-to-toe with English giants. In October 2025, at this very stadium, AEK pulled off one of the season’s biggest shocks, defeating Crystal Palace 1-0. The team are in good form, sitting at the top end of the Cypriot league table.
AEK’s injury situation is trickier than it might appear. Their treatment room has filled up: Yerson Chacón (cruciate ligaments), Enzo Cabrera, Jimmy Suárez, and Youssef Amyn are all certain to miss out. However, AEK have repeatedly shown that their system matters more than individual names. The visitors’ main task is to survive the Londoners’ opening onslaught and try to score away, keeping their hopes alive for the return leg in Larnaca.
Key facts and head-to-head
- Crystal Palace have scored first in six of their last seven matches.
- Crystal Palace have led at half-time in four of their last five games.
- Over 2 goals have been scored in seven of AEK Larnaca’s last nine matches.
- These teams have only met once before – earlier this season.
- Their group stage encounter ended in a 1-0 win for AEK Larnaca.
Probable lineups
- Crystal Palace: Henderson – Richards, Lacroix, Canvot – Devenny, Pino, Wharton, Mitchell – Sarr, Guessand, Strand Larsen
- AEK Larnaca: Alomerović – Ekpolo, Miličević, Roberge, García – Naoum, Ledes, Ivanović – Miramón, Rubio Marín, Bajić
Prediction
Crystal Palace are clear favorites, and last autumn’s defeat to AEK will only fuel the hosts’ competitive fire. Glasner will surely have addressed past mistakes, and there’s no chance of underestimating their opponents again. The difference in quality, home support, and their excellent momentum after a London derby win should prove decisive. Given AEK’s injury woes, the Eagles are expected to secure a convincing first-leg victory and head to the return fixture with confidence. My prediction: Crystal Palace to win with an Asian handicap of (-1.5).
