Croatian experience faces Swiss sensation: prediction for Thun vs Dinamo Zagreb – 21.07.2026
On Tuesday, July 21, 2026, VISANA STADION will host the first leg of the Champions League second qualifying round between Thun and Dinamo Zagreb. The match kicks off at 20:00 local time, with the return leg set for July 28 in the Croatian capital. The Swiss side enter their historic European debut as reigning national champions, while the visitors secured a domestic double last season.
Thun: the championship fairy tale continues on the Champions League stage
Last season was the best in the Swiss club’s history. Thun returned to the top flight and immediately clinched the title, racking up 75 points in 38 rounds. The team claimed 24 victories and netted 80 goals, though they conceded 52—numbers that reflect their bold but far-from-flawless style.
This summer brought a major change: the team is now led by Gian-Luca Privitelli, formerly of Thun’s academy, the Basel system, and Switzerland’s youth national team. The new coach favors an intense, attacking brand of football, so the hosts are unlikely to abandon their high pressing even against a more seasoned opponent.
However, the championship squad couldn’t be kept intact. Midfielder Leonardo Bertone moved to Luzern, and one of the team’s most prolific young talents, Ethan Maichtry, will continue his career at Genoa. For a club needing to adapt both to a new coach’s demands and the level of Champions League football, these are significant losses.
Their final test before the European debut was a mixed bag. The main squad drew 1-1 with Elversberg, while the reserves lost 1-2 to Waldhof. In the first match, Thun pressed high and created chances, with Brighton Labo scoring the goal. Yet the Swiss once again allowed their opponents to counter dangerously from defense to attack.
The hosts also face personnel issues at the heart of defense. Genis Montolio is sidelined for several months with a cruciate ligament rupture. In addition, according to FotMob, Marco Bürki will miss the match due to suspension. Privitelli may have to reshuffle his back line for one of the most crucial games of the season.
Dinamo Zagreb: a winning core and serious European pedigree
Dinamo Zagreb wrapped up last season with both the Croatian league and cup titles. In the national cup final, they beat Rijeka 2-0, with both goals scored by Luka Stojkovic. The Croatians also reached the Europa League playoff stage, so most of their players are well-accustomed to high-level European matches.
Mario Kovacevic’s side have also impressed in preseason. In early July friendlies, Dinamo crushed Slovenian side Brinje 9-0 and then beat Koper 4-2. While these opponents can’t be compared to Champions League standards, 13 goals in two games show that Dinamo’s attacking unit is already in fine form.
Kovacevic has plenty of options to bolster his attack. Dion Drena Beljo can lead the line, with Stojkovic, Mateo Lisica, and the returning Mislav Orsic supporting from behind. In midfield, Josip Misic and Miha Zajc dictate the tempo.
On the road, the Croatians are unlikely to rush things from the first whistle. This is the opening leg of a two-legged tie, so the primary objective will be to control possession and minimize Thun’s counterattacks. However, the hosts’ defensive woes in the center could tempt Dinamo to frequently whip in crosses and target Beljo between the central defenders.
Probable lineups
Thun: Steffen — Hoyle, Bamert, Bürgi, Fer — Käit, Roth — Reichmuth, Maier — Dursun, Labo.
Dinamo Zagreb: Nevistic — Valincic, Galesic, Dominguez, Peres Vinlof — Misic, Zajc — Lisica, Stojkovic, Orsic — Beljo.
Match facts and stats
- Thun scored 80 and conceded 52 goals in 38 Swiss league games last season.
- Dinamo Zagreb won the Croatian league and cup in the 2025/26 season.
- The Croatians netted 13 goals in their last two friendlies.
- The return leg will be played in Zagreb on July 28.
The visitors’ experience should be decisive: Thun vs Dinamo Zagreb prediction
Thun earned their Champions League shot with a brilliant season and will look to play bravely at home. The Swiss have enough intensity and pace to trouble the favorites, especially in the early stages.
However, the hosts enter the season with a new head coach, have lost several key players, and may be without two central defenders. Dinamo boast a deeper squad, far greater European experience, and are already showing a sharp attacking edge in preseason.
A draw in the first leg can’t be ruled out—Dinamo could opt for a cautious approach, knowing the return leg is on home turf. So a safer bet looks to be an Asian handicap with refund in case of a draw.
Prediction: Dinamo Zagreb (0) Asian handicap.
