Can Lyon overcome Openda's absence? Prediction for Lyon vs Nice — 18.10.2026
The final match of Ligue 1 Matchday 7 will take place at Groupama Stadium on Sunday, October 18, with Lyon hosting Nice at 20:45 local time. Paulo Fonseca's side are fourth with 11 points after suffering their first league defeat of the season, while Nice have climbed to ninth after finally finding momentum with back-to-back victories.
Lyon: the first setback comes with a major attacking problem
Lyon's 2-1 defeat away to Lens ended a five-match unbeaten start to the Ligue 1 campaign. Before that setback, OL had collected three victories and two draws, showing impressive balance at both ends of the pitch.
Their home numbers are particularly convincing. Lyon are still unbeaten at Groupama Stadium in the league, having drawn 1-1 with Le Havre before beating Auxerre and then dismantling Rennes 4-0. Fonseca's team have generally been comfortable taking control of matches at home, with Corentin Tolisso and Tyler Morton providing structure in midfield and Pavel Šulc linking effectively with the attack.
The major concern is Loïs Openda. The Belgian forward suffered a fracture of the right fibula against Lens and will be unavailable for several weeks. His pace and ability to attack space are difficult to replace, something Fonseca has openly acknowledged.
Keito Nakamura is one of the most obvious alternatives, while Šulc can also operate higher up the pitch. Ernest Nuamah remains another major threat after scoring three league goals this season.
Lyon also have defensive absences. Mohamed Ouédraogo has undergone surgery after suffering an ACL injury, while Nicolás Tagliafico is expected to remain sidelined for around three weeks. There is better news regarding Moussa Niakhaté, who has returned to team training and is available again.
Nice: two wins have changed the mood, but the away record remains a problem
Nice's season started badly. Olivier Pantaloni's team picked up only two points from their opening four matches, but the situation has improved dramatically with consecutive 2-1 home wins against Lille and Strasbourg.
The victory over Strasbourg was particularly encouraging. Nice reacted after falling behind, continued to attack and eventually found the winner through Jonathan Clauss in the 81st minute. Mohammed Amoura, Elye Wahi, Gauthier Hein and Sofiane Diop give Pantaloni several different attacking options, while Clauss continues to provide a major threat from the right flank.
However, there is one significant warning sign: Nice have not transferred their improved home form to away matches. Their first two league trips ended in defeats against Paris FC and Auxerre, and they failed to score in either game.
Personnel problems also remain. Laurent Abergel is recovering from a serious ACL injury, while Moïse Bombito and Antoine Mendy are also among the long-term absentees. Morgan Sanson has returned to collective training, and Hicham Boudaoui is again available, which gives Pantaloni more options in midfield.
Match facts and head-to-head record
- Lyon have lost only once in their first six Ligue 1 matches this season.
- Nice have won their last two league matches, both by a 2-1 scoreline.
- Nice lost their first two away league matches without scoring.
- Lyon are unbeaten at home in Ligue 1 this season.
- Lyon have won four of the last five meetings between the teams.
- At Groupama Stadium, Lyon are unbeaten in their last five meetings with Nice, recording four wins and one draw.
Lyon's home strength should outweigh Openda's absence
Nice are clearly improving, and their last two performances suggest this will be a much more difficult match for Lyon than the early-season table might have indicated. Pantaloni's team now look more aggressive without the ball, while Clauss and the attacking trio can punish defensive mistakes.
Still, the venue makes a significant difference. Nice have struggled badly away from home, whereas Lyon have been much more convincing at Groupama Stadium. Fonseca's side have enough technical quality through Tolisso, Morton, Šulc and Nuamah to control long spells of possession even without Openda.
The Belgian's absence reduces Lyon's threat in transition, but Nice's problems on the road and OL's strong recent record in this fixture make the hosts the more convincing choice. It may not be comfortable, but Lyon should have enough quality to return to winning ways in the championship.
Prediction: Lyon to win.
