Raphael Durand
Dailysports's expert
One of the French Cup semi-final clashes will be played on Wednesday at the Pierre de Coubertin stadium, where local club Caen will host Reims. I suggest a bet on the outcome of this encounter with good chances of success.
Match preview
Caen is one of the main sensations of the current French Cup tournament. The third division representative has already reached the semi-finals and is just one step away from the final. However, the team now faces a serious test in the form of Reims, who compete in Ligue 1.
Interestingly, Caen's deep progression has been largely aided by a favorable draw. In the quarter-finals, the team overcame Guingamp (3-1), who play in Ligue 2, but the victory was not without luck — the opponent created 2.68 xG and took 17 shots on goal. There is no doubt that in the upcoming match, the team will once again focus on a tight defense and counter-attacking play.
Reims is one of the underdogs in Ligue 1, which undoubtedly gives Caen additional motivation. The main problem for the visitors is their poor conversion rate. Over 27 rounds, the team has scored only 29 goals with an xG of 32.1. Moreover, the situation has worsened recently: in three of their last four matches, Reims failed to score.
Of course, their unexpected victory over Marseille (3-1) at the weekend is worth noting, but even there the xG stats were only 0.97, and most of the opportunities arose from open spaces. It is unlikely that Caen will allow them to attack as comfortably, which could seriously complicate the visitors' task.
Probable lineups
- Caen: Mandre - Traore, Ntim, Thomas, Gadine - Leberton, Tavaras, Tome, Hafid - Grandsir, Mendy
- Reims: Diouf – Sekine, Okumu, Kipe, Akieme – Am.Kone, Gbane, Atangana – Ito, Diakite, Nakamura
Match facts and head-to-head
- The teams last played in 2010, when they drew 0-0 twice
- The "both teams to score" bet came through in one of Reims' last five matches
- The "over 2.5 total goals" bet was successful in three of Caen's last five matches
Prediction
Bookmakers offer odds of 1.58 for a victory for the visitors, but we believe that the match will not be easy for Reims. We suggest taking "Caen win with a handicap (+1.5)" at odds of 1.65.
