Augsburg vs Bayern Munich: can the hosts surprise the champions again?
The fifth round of the Bundesliga will bring us an intriguing clash in Augsburg, where the hosts will welcome Bayern Munich on October 10. On paper, the favorite is obvious, but after their last head-to-head meeting, the Munich giants certainly cannot afford to relax.
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Augsburg have made a surprisingly strong start to the season and sit fourth after four rounds with seven points. The team have already scored 11 goals — a new club record after their first four Bundesliga matches. It has been a truly impressive opening: a 3-0 win over Schalke, followed by a 4-1 away victory against Eintracht Frankfurt. They then drew 2-2 with Bayer Leverkusen and lost 3-2 to Werder Bremen. So, the hosts are firing on all cylinders in attack, but there is clearly still work to be done defensively.
Augsburg also have another interesting factor in their favor — home advantage. Since Manuel Baum returned, the team have lost just one of their 13 home Bundesliga matches. Bayern could therefore be in for a difficult evening here.
The situation is even more intriguing for the Munich side. Bayern have collected 10 points and sit second, behind only Borussia Dortmund. At the same time, the team have scored 14 goals and conceded just two. After a 5-1 victory over Stuttgart came an unexpected goalless draw with Schalke, followed by a narrow 2-1 win over Elversberg. Then, before the international break, the Munich giants simply demolished Union Berlin 7-0.
However, away matches have been a minor problem for the team so far. Bayern have collected only four points from two away games: a 0-0 draw with Schalke and a 2-1 win over Elversberg. There is also an impressive streak, though — the Munich giants have gone 28 Bundesliga away matches without defeat.
The head-to-head statistics, meanwhile, are almost entirely in the visitors' favor: Bayern have won 45 of their 64 official meetings, Augsburg have won 13, and the teams have drawn six times. But their most recent encounter, in January 2026, was a genuine shock — Augsburg won 2-1 in Munich. What is more, it remains Bayern's only defeat in their last 47 Bundesliga matches.
So I would not expect a comfortable outing for the favorites here. Augsburg are scoring freely at the moment and look confident at home, but Bayern's superior quality should ultimately tell. Especially if the visitors allow their key players to operate at their usual tempo.
My prediction: over 3.5 total goals.
