Mainz — Bayer: can the hosts stop in-form Leverkusen?
Matchday 5 of the Bundesliga brings an intriguing clash in Mainz, where the home side will host Bayer. Both teams head into the game with identical records — seven points from four matches — making the price of another victory especially high.
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Mainz have made a positive impression so far. Urs Fischer’s side opened the campaign with a goalless draw against Paderborn, before putting on a real show for their supporters by thrashing Hamburg 5-0. A 3-2 home defeat to Eintracht followed, but Mainz produced another thriller in the next round, beating Borussia Mönchengladbach 4-3. Ten goals scored in four matches is a serious return, although the team has also been conceding on a regular basis.
Bayer’s start has been a mixed one. Leverkusen were surprisingly beaten 3-2 by Elversberg in the opening round, but then thrashed Union 4-0, drew 2-2 with Augsburg and comfortably defeated RB Leipzig 2-0. In other words, after a disappointing start, the team is gradually picking up steam. The last two matches, in particular, showed that Bayer’s defense is capable of performing with real reliability.
The squad situation also deserves attention. Mainz will definitely be without Daniel Kohr and Silas, while the involvement of Paul Nebel, Silvan Widmer and goalkeeper Robin Zentner remains in doubt. Bayer’s injury list includes Doue and Kenneth Eichhorn, while Eliesse Ben Seghir, Caleb Koul and Kofane are all doubtful.
At the same time, the hosts have an important trump card — home advantage and a bold approach. Mainz are not used to sitting deep in defense, and against Bayer that could turn the match into another goal-laden shootout. Leverkusen, meanwhile, possess greater individual quality and, after four rounds, have the second-highest passing volume among these teams, while also clearly surpassing Mainz in total shots.
The last meeting between the sides in February ended in a high-scoring 1-1 draw. So Bayer should certainly not expect an easy ride.
In my view, the teams are once again quite capable of exchanging goals.
Mainz will look to take the initiative at home, while Bayer are certain to exploit the spaces left behind. However, taking all the factors into account, I would still give the visitors a slight edge.
My prediction: over 2.5 total goals
