Atletico vs Real Madrid prediction, H2H and probable lineups - September 27, 2025
One of the marquee fixtures of La Liga's Matchday 7 will take place this Saturday at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano Stadium in Madrid, where Atletico host their arch-rivals Real. I'm backing a bet on goals in this clash, with strong chances for success.
Match preview
In the previous round, Diego Simeone's side managed to snatch a dramatic victory in the capital derby against Rayo Vallecano (2-1). That marked only Atletico's second win of the current campaign, but it extended their unbeaten run in La Liga to five matches. However, the frequent draws have kept the Madrid club from climbing higher than eighth in the standings.
At home, Atletico traditionally step up: they've won six of their last seven games at the Metropolitano. The Rojiblancos have consistently impressed going forward, netting in eight consecutive league matches. On the flip side, a shaky defense and injuries to key midfielders have forced Simeone to constantly seek the right balance.
Xabi Alonso's men made light work of Levante in the previous round (4-1), stretching their winning streak in La Liga to nine matches. Real remain the only team yet to drop points this season, and their goal difference is among the league's best. Defensively, Los Blancos have been nearly flawless, conceding just three times in six rounds.
On the road, Real look supremely confident, winning seven of their last eight away league games. In attack, they've been a model of consistency: they've scored at least two goals in ten of their last eleven league fixtures. Even with a spate of injuries in defense, the squad depth and the form of attacking stars like Mbappe and Vinicius allow Real to dictate terms with ease.
Probable lineups
- Atletico Madrid: Oblak, Molina, Llorente, Le Normand, Gantzko, Galan, Barrios, Koke, Gallagher, Griezmann, Alvarez
- Real: Courtois, Heisen, Asensio, Carreras, Mastantuono, Ceballos, Valverde, Garcia, Güler, Vinicius, Mbappe
Match facts and head-to-head
- Atletico have scored in 20 consecutive La Liga home matches.
- Real have won 7 of their last 8 away league games.
- Both teams have scored in each of the last 6 Madrid derbies.
Prediction
Atletico continue to battle for points even in tough match-ups, but their defense remains prone to errors. Real, meanwhile, look like a well-oiled machine with a perfect balance between attack and defense. History shows that clean sheets are a rarity in this derby. A bet on “Both teams to score” at odds of 1.62 seems like the optimal choice for this clash.
