Athletic vs Qarabag prediction, H2H and probable lineups - 22 October 2025
One of the clashes of Matchday 3 in the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League group stage will take place on Wednesday at San Mamés in Bilbao, where local side Athletic will host Azerbaijan's Qarabag. I suggest betting on goals in this encounter, as the odds for success look promising.
Match preview
The Spanish side have had a disastrous start to the group stage, losing first to Arsenal (0-2) and then to Borussia Dortmund (1-4). These setbacks have extended Athletic's losing streak in European competition to four consecutive matches — the worst run in the club's international history.
Defensive problems have become glaringly apparent: the team has conceded 13 goals in their last four games. Despite this, Athletic remain a formidable force at home: six wins in their last eight European fixtures at San Mamés are testament to their high standard of play on their own turf.
Qarabag, meanwhile, have surprised many by topping the group after claiming back-to-back wins in the opening two rounds — first away at Benfica, then at home against Copenhagen. The team’s defense is still far from perfect, but the Azerbaijani side are playing with confidence and efficiency in attack.
They are on a stellar run in the Champions League, winning 7 of their last 8 matches in the competition. Not only are they winning, but doing so in style: in five of their last eight matches, Qarabag have scored at least twice, including away from home.
Probable lineups
- Athletic: Simon, Berchiche, Vivian, Laporte, Areso, Gomez, Jaureguizar, Ruiz de Galarreta, Navarro, Guruzeta, Williams
- Qarabag: Kochalski, Mustafazade, Medina, Silva, Jafarguliyev, Zoubir, Kady, Andrade, Bicalho, Addai, Duran
Match facts and head-to-head
- Athletic have won 6 of their last 8 home matches in European competition
- Qarabag are unbeaten in 13 consecutive Champions League away matches (no draws)
- Qarabag have scored at least two goals in 6 of their last 8 Champions League games
Prediction
Despite being at home, Athletic approach this match with serious defensive issues. Qarabag, on the other hand, are playing mature, effective football and are well positioned to exploit their opponent's weaknesses. Given the Azerbaijani side’s current form, betting on 'both teams to score' at 2.05 odds looks like a logical choice.
