Atalanta vs Roma prediction, H2H and probable lineups — May 12, 2025
As part of Serie A's 36th round, Atalanta will take on Roma. The clash is set for Bergamo on Monday, May 12, with kick-off scheduled for 20:45 Central European Time. I'm backing a bet on goals in this encounter.
Match preview
As expected, Atalanta couldn't keep pace with Inter and Napoli in the Scudetto race, but it seems the Bergamo side has locked up third place. After crashing out of the Champions League, the team hit a rough patch and spent some time trying to break out of their slump.
That period was marked by three straight defeats, during which "La Dea" failed to score even once. Retegui played a key role in turning things around—his scoring exploits helped Atalanta defeat Bologna, and then they went on to beat Milan away. A draw with Lecce was unexpected, but the following round saw Atalanta confidently dismantle Monza, sending their opponents down to Serie B.
With three rounds to go, it looks like Atalanta will reclaim bronze medals after a four-year wait. Their five-point cushion over fourth place gives them a comfortable margin.
In the remaining fixtures, Gasperini's men will face Roma, Genoa, and Parma. Interestingly, only Inter has scored more than Atalanta this season, but Serie A's top scorer is Bergamo's new signing, Mateo Retegui, who already has 24 goals to his name.
Since Claudio Ranieri took over as manager, Roma's results have improved dramatically. The experienced coach found the right words and brought the team back into the Champions League race—something that seemed impossible midway through the season.
I'm not sure Roma fans enjoy the football their team is playing. The "Giallorossi" are pragmatic, focusing first and foremost on defensive solidity. Still, as long as the results keep coming, few will dare to criticize Ranieri too harshly.
Remarkably, Roma have scored exactly one goal in each of their last nine matches. The last time they netted more than once in Serie A was two months ago, against Como. Their 50 goals are the weakest tally among the league's top nine teams.
On the other hand, Roma haven't lost in Serie A since mid-December last year. The run-in won't be easy, with Milan and Torino still ahead after the trip to Bergamo. Alongside Lazio and Juventus, Roma have the most realistic shot at finishing fourth and claiming a Champions League spot.
Match facts
- Atalanta have conceded just one goal in their last four matches.
- The Bergamo club have won only one of their last nine home games.
- Roma are unbeaten in 19 consecutive Serie A fixtures.
- The Romans have claimed three straight 1-0 victories.
- Atalanta average 1.9 goals per home game, while Roma average 0.95 goals per away match.
Probable lineups
- Atalanta: Carnesecchi, Toloi, Djimsiti, Kossounou, De Roon, Ederson, Zappacosta, Bellanova, Lookman, De Ketelaere, Retegui.
- Roma: Svilar, Ndicka, Mancini, Cristante, Celik, Angelino, Kone, Pellegrini, Sule, Shomurodov, Dovbyk.
H2H
- Roma haven't beaten Atalanta in three years.
- The "both teams to score" bet has landed in each of the last six meetings between these sides in Bergamo.
Prediction
The hosts have built up solid momentum, but Roma's pragmatic style can frustrate any opponent. The discipline shown by the Romans is the cornerstone of their success, so Atalanta are in for a tough test. Bookmakers see Gasperini's side as favorites, but you can't write off Roma. My pick is for both teams to score.
