Arsenal vs Burnley: prediction, H2H and probable lineups — 18.05.2026
One of the matches of the 37th round of the English Championship will take place on Monday at the Emirates Stadium in London, where the local side Arsenal will host Burnley, who have already been officially relegated from the Premier League. Here’s my take on the outcome of this clash: the hosts are just two wins away from a historic title, while the visitors will be fighting to salvage some pride against the league leaders.
Match preview
Arsenal come into this fixture controlling their own destiny in the title race. With two rounds left, Mikel Arteta’s side need to win both remaining matches to be crowned champions of England for the first time in 22 years, and that pressure is palpable in every detail. In the previous round, the Gunners edged past West Ham, though the ending was tense: a last-minute equaliser from the opposition was chalked off after a VAR intervention.
Arsenal’s form is imposing — three consecutive Premier League clean-sheet victories, a Champions League final berth after a semi-final win over Atletico, and near-perfect focus in the standings. The main concern for the hosts is on the right side of defence: Ben White is out injured for the rest of the season, and Jurrien Timber is still racing to return. Most likely, Cristian Mosquera will slot in on the right again after covering that spot in the second half against West Ham, while Riccardo Calafiori should be ready after resuming training.
Burnley have officially dropped out of the Premier League, but in the previous round Mike Jackson’s team finally showed some grit. After five straight defeats, the Clarets drew 2-2 with Aston Villa, Europa League finalists, and while the result doesn’t change their fate, it at least injected a spark into their end-of-season run-in. The visitors’ main issue is their chronic inability to turn goals into points.
Burnley have scored in five of their last six away matches, but have lost their last four on the road — to Everton, Fulham, Nottingham, and Leeds — each time by more than a single goal. Ahead of the trip to London, Hannibal Mejbri is a doubt after picking up an injury against Aston Villa. Given Arsenal’s prowess at set pieces, Jackson may opt for a more cautious 5-4-1 setup, packing the defence to prevent the league leaders from breaking the game open early.
Probable lineups
- Arsenal: Raya, Calafiori, Gabriel, Saliba, Mosquera, Lewis-Skelly, Rice, Odegaard, Trossard, Saka, Gyökeres.
- Burnley: Wys, Tuanzebe, Humphreys, Esteve, Walker, Pires, Ugochukwu, Luis, Tshauana, Anthony, Flemming.
Match facts and head-to-head
- Arsenal have won their last three Premier League matches to nil and are two wins away from the title.
- Burnley snapped a five-game losing streak with a 2-2 draw against Aston Villa, but haven’t tasted victory in over three months.
- Arsenal have won 14 of their last 18 meetings with Burnley and have netted a total of ten goals in their last three encounters with this opponent.
Prediction
Arsenal simply cannot afford any slip-ups now: the title is within touching distance, and facing the league’s penultimate side should be a straightforward assignment with no unnecessary drama. Even with a reshuffle at right-back, the hosts’ defensive structure looks solid, and the attacking trio of Saka, Odegaard, and Gyökeres should be causing problems from the opening whistle.
Burnley might find a chance, especially given their knack for scoring away, but keeping pace with a highly motivated leader will be a huge challenge. The visitors have nothing left to play for, while Arsenal are chasing a first league crown in 22 years. My pick: Arsenal to win with a -2.5 handicap.
