Ajax - Inter prediction, H2H and probable line-ups - 17 September 2025
One of the matches of the opening round of the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League group stage will take place on Wednesday at the Johan Cruyff Arena in Amsterdam, where the local side Ajax will host Inter Milan. I'm backing a bet on goals in this clash, with good chances for success.
Match preview
Ajax return to the Champions League group stage after a three-year absence, earning a direct spot thanks to their second-place finish in the Eredivisie. Their best achievement in the 21st century remains the semi-final run in the 2018/19 season, but recent campaigns have been less impressive: five defeats in their last seven matches and a poor record against Italian clubs. John Heitinga’s men try to make up for defensive instability with aggressive attacking play, which often leads to high-scoring encounters.
Home form remains a key strength for Ajax: in their last 14 Champions League games in Amsterdam, they conceded more than once on only three occasions. However, with personnel issues and lacklustre results in Europe, Ajax approach this fixture with cautious optimism. Their main task will be to neutralise the opponent’s attacking line and look to hit on the counter with Wout Weghorst and their experienced midfielders.
The Milan side begin their Champions League campaign as last season’s finalists, though their heavy loss to PSG (0-5) was a bitter blow. Inter have reached the main round for the eighth consecutive year and rarely lose to Dutch opposition — 13 unbeaten matches speak for themselves. Despite their high profile, Inter have not won in regulation time in their last four Champions League matches, conceding 13 goals in that span.
On the road, Inter have delivered solid results: unbeaten in 9 of their last 11 away Champions League fixtures. However, their attacking output away from home is less impressive — only on four occasions in that stretch have they scored more than once. Simone Inzaghi’s team continues to rely on a robust defence with Yann Sommer in goal and a tight midfield marshalled by Çalhanoğlu and Barella.
Probable line-ups
- Ajax: Jaros, Geertruida, Itakura, Baas, Wijndal, Moro, Fitz-Jim, Berghuis, Taylor, Glukh, Weghorst
- Inter: Sommer, Akanji, Acerbi, Bastoni, Dumfries, Sučić, Barella, Çalhanoğlu, Dimarco, Lautaro Martínez, Thuram
Match facts and head-to-head
- Ajax have not beaten Italian teams in their last 7 encounters (2 draws, 5 losses).
- Inter have avoided defeat in regulation time in 9 of their last 11 Champions League away games.
- 5 of Ajax’s last 6 home matches in the UCL have seen at least three goals scored.
Prediction
Both clubs approach the match with different expectations: Ajax will count on home support and a pragmatic defensive approach, while Inter will look to control the tempo with their experience and discipline. The Milanese rarely play high-scoring games away from home, and Ajax traditionally defend well in Amsterdam. Our recommended bet for this match is "Total under 3.0" at odds of 1.67.
