Vélez Sarsfield vs Fortaleza prediction, H2H and probable lineups — August 20, 2025
On August 20, 2025, the second leg of the Copa Libertadores round of 16 will see Argentina’s Vélez Sarsfield host Brazil’s Fortaleza. Let’s break down the best bet for this high-stakes encounter.
Vélez Sarsfield
Vélez Sarsfield enter this year’s Copa Libertadores as the 2024 Argentine champions. However, last season the team failed to live up to their high status domestically, finishing only 13th in the Apertura. The new Clausura has been much more promising—after five rounds, Vélez have collected 8 points and sit fourth in Group B.
Recently, Vélez delighted their home fans by clinching the Argentine International Super Cup with a 2-0 victory over Estudiantes. Their Argentine Cup campaign was less successful, ending in a round of 32 defeat to Lanús.
But in the Copa Libertadores, Vélez have looked strong and confident. They comfortably topped their group with 11 points, securing first place. The first leg of this round of 16 tie in Brazil ended in a goalless draw, giving the Argentines an excellent chance ahead of the home leg. Notably, that match was the first-ever meeting between these clubs, adding an extra layer of intrigue and rivalry to the battle for a quarterfinal spot.
Vélez’s home form stands out in particular. On their own turf, they’re a formidable force, unbeaten in their last six matches with four wins and two draws. The team relies on disciplined defending, rarely giving opponents a chance to create danger. In their last five games, only one saw over 2.5 goals scored, while three finished 0-0.
Fortaleza
Fortaleza earned their spot in this year’s Copa Libertadores after a stellar 2024 campaign, finishing fourth in Brazil’s top flight. But this season has been a stark contrast—the team is enduring a disastrous domestic run. After 19 rounds, Fortaleza sit second from bottom (19th) with only 15 points. They’re just four points from safety, but the squad’s overall form is cause for serious concern.
Despite their struggles, Fortaleza managed to escape the Libertadores group stage, albeit with difficulty, snatching second place to reach the knockout rounds. In the first leg against Vélez at home, the Brazilians enjoyed some advantage in play but failed to convert it into goals. Now, the tie heads to Argentina, where their task becomes significantly tougher.
Of particular worry is Fortaleza’s dreadful form. In their last 16 competitive matches, they have managed just one win—against Bragantino in the Brazilian league. All other fixtures have ended in draws or defeats. In their last five games, Fortaleza have suffered three losses and drawn twice.
Probable lineups
- Vélez Sarsfield: Marchiori, Gordón, Quiros, Magallan, E. Gómez, Allendro, Baeza, Machuca, Galván, Carrizo, Romero.
- Fortaleza: Vinicius Silvestre, Avila, Brites, Mancuzo, Diogo Barbosa, Martinez, Lucca Prior, Lucas Sasha, Allanzinho, Deyverson, Breno Lopes.
Key facts and head-to-head
- Vélez Sarsfield have won 3 of their last 4 home matches.
- Vélez Sarsfield are unbeaten in 6 of their last 7 matches.
- 3 of Vélez’s last 4 games have featured under 1.5 total goals.
- Fortaleza have failed to win 15 of their last 16 matches.
- 6 of Fortaleza’s last 7 games have seen over 1.5 total goals.
- Fortaleza have lost 6 of their last 7 away matches.
- The first leg between these sides ended 0-0.
Vélez Sarsfield vs Fortaleza prediction
Vélez Sarsfield look like clear favorites heading into this clash. The Argentines are in good form, dominant at home, and are riding an impressive unbeaten streak in front of their fans. Fortaleza, by contrast, are in the midst of a wretched run—winless for a long stretch, languishing in Brazil’s relegation zone, and continuing to turn in lackluster results. With the first leg ending goalless and considering the current state of both sides, Vélez have every reason to believe they’ll secure victory at home and book their place in the Libertadores quarterfinals. My pick for this match is a Vélez Sarsfield win at odds of 1.91.
