Ukraine vs France prediction, H2H and probable lineups - September 5, 2025
One of the highlight fixtures of Matchday 5 in the 2026 World Cup qualifiers will take place this Friday at Wrocław Stadium in Poland, where Ukraine will host the French national team. Let’s break down a betting option for this clash that offers promising odds.
Match preview
The Ukrainian national team is no stranger to facing France in the qualifying stages — they’ve already developed a certain resilience against this opponent. In the 2022 World Cup qualifiers, Ukraine faced Les Bleus twice and earned 1-1 draws on both occasions, showcasing their ability to defend smartly and capitalize on rare chances. Over recent years, Ukraine has been a consistent points-getter — across 10 World Cup qualifiers, they’ve suffered just one defeat.
Serhiy Rebrov’s side is especially strong at absorbing pressure in the first half: in 12 of their last 15 qualifiers, Ukraine didn’t concede before halftime. Even without Lunin and Tymchyk, the squad remains combative, boasting a well-organized midfield. The “home” advantage — albeit in Poland — could also tip the scales for Ukraine.
France come into the 2026 World Cup qualifiers as one of the tournament favorites, but not without changes. The retirement of Griezmann and injuries to Saliba and Cherki have forced Didier Deschamps to reshuffle his attacking options. Still, the French squad is stacked with depth, and even with rotation, they remain extremely dangerous.
France traditionally start qualifiers with authority, unbeaten in their last 12 away qualifying matches. But Les Bleus often take a pragmatic approach on the road — no more than two goals scored in 7 of their past 8 away games. Clashes against Ukraine have often proven tricky for the French, especially away from home.
Probable lineups
- Ukraine: Trubin, Zabarnyi, Svatok, Matviyenko, Yarmolyuk, Mykolenko, Zinchenko, Kalyuzhnyi, Sudakov, Hutsulyak, Dovbyk
- France: Maignan, Digne, Gusto, Hernandez, Upamecano, Rabiot, Tchouaméni, Thuram, Olise, Doue, Mbappé
Match facts and head-to-head
- Ukraine have lost just 2 of their last 6 official matches against France
- France have not won by more than one goal in 7 of their last 10 away World Cup qualifiers
- In 11 of Ukraine’s last 14 qualifiers, there have been no more than two goals scored
Prediction
France are deservedly favorites on paper, but Ukraine have repeatedly shown they can go toe-to-toe with elite opposition. The home status, familiarity with France, and disciplined defending suggest this won’t be a rout. Our recommended bet: “Ukraine with a +1.5 handicap” at odds of 1.75.
