Tunisia is falling apart, Netherlands gain momentum: prediction for Tunisia vs Netherlands - 26.06.2026
The national teams of Tunisia and the Netherlands will clash at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City in the third round of the 2026 World Cup group stage. Tunisia, after two crushing defeats, have already lost their chances of advancing to the playoffs, while the Netherlands, following a spectacular win over Sweden, top the group and head into this match with a clear edge in class.
Tunisia: coaching change fails to halt collapse
Tunisia opened the tournament with a 1-5 thrashing by Sweden and, even with Hervé Renard at the helm, failed to reset against Japan. The team collapsed once again, conceding twice before halftime, barely creating anything up front, and finished the match with a 0-4 defeat and a miserable 0.05 xG.
The main issue plaguing Tunisia is the total breakdown of defensive stability. Over two rounds, they've conceded nine goals—and 14 in their last three matches. Renard has already rotated goalkeepers and reshuffled the back line, but the effect has been negligible: neither Abdelmouhib Shamah nor Aymen Dahmen managed to bail the team out under pressure.
Netherlands: attack in top gear, but defense still shaky
The Netherlands started their World Cup campaign unconvincingly, squandering a late lead to draw 2-2 with Japan. But in the second round, Ronald Koeman’s side looked far more powerful: the Oranje dismantled Sweden 5-1 and showed just how versatile their attacking arsenal can be.
Koeman now enjoys a wealth of options up front. Crysencio Summerville impressed against Japan, Brian Brobbey bagged a brace versus Sweden, and Memphis Depay is steadily regaining fitness and could soon return to the starting lineup. Still, not everything is smooth sailing: the Netherlands have conceded three goals in two rounds and are yet to keep a clean sheet in 2026.
Probable lineups
- Tunisia: Dahmen, Rekik, Talbi, Bronn, Abdi, Slimane, Skhiri, Valeri, Mejbri, Saad, Tunketi.
- Netherlands: Verbruggen, Van Dijk, Jan Paul van Hecke, Dumfries, Micky van de Ven, Gravenberch, De Jong, Reijnders, Malen, Gakpo, Brobbey.
Match facts and head-to-head
- In five of Tunisia’s last six official matches, both teams scored.
- In five of the Netherlands’ last six games, the "both teams to score" bet also landed.
- In six of the Netherlands’ last seven official matches, and in Tunisia’s last three, four or more goals were scored.
Class gap too wide: prediction for Tunisia vs Netherlands
Tunisia approach the final group match with no tournament motivation and a host of problems on the pitch. They struggle to cope with opponents’ tempo, make far too many defensive errors, and create virtually nothing in attack. Not even a mid-tournament coaching change sparked any visible improvement.
The Netherlands, on the other hand, are steadily gaining form and look like a team with even more room to grow. Their attack is already firing on all cylinders, with Gakpo and Brobbey in great shape, and Tunisia’s defensive frailties are too glaring for the Oranje to ignore. Even with their own defensive questions, Koeman’s side should confidently see this match through.
