Toluca vs New York City: Who will advance to the Leagues Cup playoffs?

Toluca vs New York City FC prediction Getty Images
Leagues Cup (Round 3) 05 aug 2025, 19:30
Finished
2 : 1
International,
New York City FC New York City FC
Jesus Angulo
37'
Paulinho
39'
10'
Alonso Martinez

In the final round of the Leagues Cup group stage, Mexican side Toluca faces off against New York City. The match kicks off overnight on August 6 at 1:30 AM Central European Time. We bring you a betting tip for this clash.

Toluca vs New York City: Match facts and head-to-head

  • Toluca has lost just once in their last ten matches.
  • New York City has suffered only one defeat in their previous five outings.
  • Toluca has scored at least one goal in seven consecutive matches.
  • Toluca has failed to keep a clean sheet in their last six games.
  • In their last ten matches, Toluca has never lost without scoring, while New York City has drawn a blank three times.
  • Both teams have won two of their last ten matches without conceding a goal.
  • Toluca and New York City have never faced each other before.

Toluca vs New York City: Match preview

Toluca is on the brink of qualifying for the Leagues Cup playoffs. The team has secured back-to-back wins in their first two games. First, the Mexicans edged out Columbus Crew 3-2 on penalties, then staged a comeback to defeat Club de Foot Montréal 2-1. Toluca now sits fourth in the table with five points. A win here would all but guarantee their spot in the playoffs.

The situation is far less promising for New York City, who need a perfect storm of results to progress to the next round. In their opener, City fell 0-3 to Puebla but bounced back with a 2-0 victory over Club León. That leaves them on three points, just one behind fourth place. New York City must win this match and hope for slip-ups from as many as ten rivals. Moreover, they need a convincing win over Toluca to edge ahead on goal difference.

Probable lineups

  • Toluca: Garcia; Barbosa, Luan, Pereira, Gallardo; Ruiz, Romero; Domínguez, Angulo, Vega; Paulina
  • New York City: Freese; Gray, Tanasijević, Haak, O'Toole; O'Neill, Perea; J. Fernandez, Morales, Ojeda; Martinez

Prediction

This is a do-or-die fixture for both sides—neither Toluca nor New York City can afford to hold back. I'm backing the match total to go over three goals at odds of 1.8. Expect both teams to attack relentlessly in pursuit of victory.

Prediction on game Total over 3
Odds: 1.8
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