Olympiacos vs Pafos prediction, H2H and probable lineups - September 17, 2025
One of the matches of the opening round of the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League group stage will take place on Wednesday at the Karaiskakis Stadium in Piraeus, where Greek side Olympiacos will host Cypriot club Pafos. Here’s a betting tip for this clash with promising odds for success.
Match preview
The Greeks are back in the Champions League group stage for the first time in five years, a long-awaited event for their fans. Winning the domestic championship restored their status, but their European record remains worrying: just two wins in their last 11 matches in the continent’s top competition. At their home ground, Karaiskakis, Olympiacos traditionally play cautiously, as reflected in their low scoring stats.
An additional headache is the absence of first-choice goalkeeper Tzolakis, who is serving a suspension. In attack, the team increasingly relies on the individual brilliance of El Kaabi and the experience of Cabella, but without solid support from the midfield, their efficiency leaves much to be desired. All of this casts doubt on the hosts’ ability to secure a convincing victory.
The Cypriot club is making history: for the first time ever, they will play in the Champions League group stage. Under Juan Carlos Carcedo, Pafos sensationally navigated the qualifiers, knocking out seasoned sides like Maccabi, Dynamo Kyiv, and Crvena Zvezda. Remarkably, they did so without suffering a single defeat, winning four matches and drawing twice.
Pafos are showing maturity well beyond their status as tournament debutants. On the road, they look especially dangerous, riding a three-match away winning streak and scoring in nearly every game. Their strengths are disciplined defending and lightning-fast transitions, with Orsic and Oliveira standing out in attack. The Cypriots have proven they’re not intimidated by big-name opponents and are capable of springing surprises.
Probable lineups
- Olympiacos: Paschalakis, Costinha, Retsos, Biankon, Ortega, Mouzakitis, Esse, Gelson Martins, Chiquinho, Cabella, El Kaabi
- Pafos: Michail, Gomez Goldar, Luckassen, Langa, Bruno, Sunjic, Dragomir, Rodrigues, Orsic, Correia, Oliveira Silva
Match facts and head-to-head
- Olympiacos haven’t won by more than one goal in their last 13 Champions League matches.
- Pafos are making their Champions League group stage debut, having gone unbeaten in qualifying.
- The Cypriots have scored in 7 of their last 8 away games in European competitions.
Prediction
Olympiacos remain favourites thanks to experience and home support, but their recent European form raises doubts. Pafos have shown they can withstand pressure and play with discipline. Our recommendation: "Pafos win with a +1.5 handicap" at odds of 1.69.
