Newcastle - Benfica prediction, H2H and probable lineups - October 21, 2025
One of the fixtures in Matchday 3 of the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League group stage will take place on Tuesday at St. James' Park in Newcastle, where the local side hosts Benfica from Lisbon. Here’s a betting tip for this clash with a promising chance of success.
Match preview
The English club has struggled to find stability since their return to the Champions League. In last season’s campaign, Newcastle managed just one win in the group stage, and this year they started with a home defeat to Barcelona. However, in the second round, the Magpies pulled off a stunning 4-0 away win over Union, which could prove to be a turning point in their European journey.
Still, home form remains a concern—Newcastle have lost their last three Champions League matches at St. James’ Park. There’s also a clear inconsistency in converting chances, with no more than three goals scored in six of their last eight games in the competition. Injuries, particularly in defense, could again play a role in the outcome.
The Portuguese side have been disappointing so far in this season’s Champions League. After a shocking home loss to Qarabag, the club changed managers, bringing in José Mourinho, but even his arrival couldn’t prevent a 0-1 defeat to Chelsea in the second round. As a result, Benfica sit 33rd in the overall standings, still without a point.
Benfica’s record against English clubs in the Champions League is traditionally poor. The team has failed to win in their last 11 meetings with Premier League opposition. And although they’ve had some decent results on the road recently (four wins in seven matches), their attack has been lackluster—scoring no more than two goals in five of those six games.
Probable lineups
- Newcastle: Nick Pope, Kieran Trippier, Malick Thiaw, Sven Botman, Dan Burn, Bruno Guimarães, Sandro Tonali, Joelinton, Anthony Elanga, Anthony Gordon, Nick Woltemade
- Benfica: Anatoliy Trubin, António Silva, Samuel Dahl, Nicolás Otamendi, Amar Dedić, Richard Ríos, Enzo Barrenechea, Heorhii Sudakov, Fredrik Aursnes, Evangelos Pavlidis, Dodi Lukebakio.
Match facts and head-to-head
- Benfica have failed to beat Premier League sides in 11 straight Champions League games (3 draws, 8 defeats).
- Newcastle have lost their last three home games in the Champions League.
- Five of Benfica’s last six away matches in the Champions League saw no more than two goals scored.
Prediction
Despite their inconsistent form, Newcastle have the chance to capitalize on Benfica’s struggles against English opposition. The emphatic win over Union has boosted their confidence, and playing at home with the support of their fans could be the decisive factor. Given Benfica’s losing streak in the Champions League, betting on a Newcastle win at odds of 1.65 seems the logical choice.
