Milan vs Bari prediction, H2H and probable lineups — August 17, 2025
On August 17, 2025, the Coppa Italia will feature a Round of 32 showdown between Milan and Bari. The match is set to kick off at 21:15 Central European Time. Let's break down the best bet for this clash.
Milan
Milan will want to forget last season as quickly as possible. Apart from their Supercoppa Italiana triumph over Inter, the Rossoneri fell short of any significant achievements. They lost the Coppa Italia final to Bologna 0-1 and finished only eighth in Serie A, missing out on European competition for the coming season. For a giant like Milan, that's a real setback—just recently they were fighting in the Champions League, and now they're completely out of international tournaments.
During the offseason, Milan played five friendlies against teams of varying calibers. They faced top sides like Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Leeds, and Australian outfit Perth Glory. The Rossoneri suffered two defeats—1-4 in their last outing against Chelsea and 0-1 in the opener versus Arsenal. They drew with Leeds, but against Liverpool, Milan showed fantastic attacking football, winning 4-2. The highlight was demolishing Perth Glory 9-0.
Milan knows their upcoming opponents—Bari—very well. The sides have met numerous times in the past, though Bari hasn't played in the top tier for quite a while, with all head-to-heads dating back to the late '90s and mid-2000s. On home soil, Milan are unbeaten against Bari in their last eight encounters, boasting five wins and three draws.
Bari
Bari, representing Serie B, finished ninth last season, narrowly missing out on the playoff zone for a shot at promotion to the top flight. That's a marked improvement compared to the previous year when they were fighting for survival.
In last season's Coppa Italia, Bari exited as early as the Round of 32, losing 1-2 to Cremonese. Their preparations for the new campaign were fairly modest: they played four friendlies against lower-division opponents, picking up three wins and suffering one defeat.
Head-to-head history against Milan is not on Bari's side. Their last win over the Rossoneri came back in 1998, when they were still in Serie A, claiming a 1-0 victory. Since then, the teams have met 12 times: Milan have won seven, with the other five ending in draws. The last official meeting between the teams took place in 2011 in Serie A.
Probable lineups
- Milan: Maignan, Kubis, Tomori, Terracciano, Musah, Ricci, Fofana, Bartezaghi, Loftus-Cheek, Saelemaekers, Leão.
- Bari: Pissardo, Bellomo, Braunöder, Vicari, Dickmann, Mané, Moncini, Nikolaou, Onofrietti, Pagano, Rao.
Key stats and head-to-head
- Three of Milan's last four matches have seen over 3.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in three of Milan's last four outings.
- Bari are unbeaten in four of their last five matches.
- Three of Bari's last four games ended with over 2.5 goals.
- Milan are unbeaten in their last 12 head-to-head clashes.
- Milan have won four of the last five meetings between the sides.
Milan vs Bari prediction
Although the season is just getting underway, Milan approach this match in strong form. Last year they reached the Coppa Italia final, and now the Rossoneri will be determined to improve their league campaign and kick off the season with a confident victory. The head-to-head record is all in Milan's favor—they haven't lost to Bari in ages and have won the majority of their meetings. Milan's class is clearly above that of their Serie B opponents, and their preparation and self-belief should translate into a dominant home display. My bet for this match: Milan to win with a -1.5 handicap at odds of 1.57.
