Milan vs Atalanta: prediction, head-to-head stats and probable lineups — 10.05.2026
One of the marquee clashes of Serie A’s 36th round will unfold this Sunday in Milan, as the local giants AC Milan welcome Atalanta to the iconic San Siro. Both sides enter the contest in shaky form: the Rossoneri risk complicating their Champions League ambitions, while La Dea are still clinging to their slim hopes for European competition. Here’s a prediction for this high-stakes showdown, with a promising chance of success.
Match preview
Not long ago, Milan looked like a team capable - at least theoretically - of re-entering the title race after their 1-0 derby victory over Inter. But a subsequent defeat to Lazio (0-1), inconsistency, and a fresh setback against Sassuolo (0-2) have dramatically shifted the mood: third place is now far from guaranteed, and the pressure is mounting on Massimiliano Allegri’s squad.
The main concern for the Rossoneri is their attack, which has lost both its edge and productivity. Over the last five games, Milan have scored just once, and the Rafael Leão–Christian Pulisic partnership isn’t sparking as hoped. Allegri may opt for changes, bringing Santiago Giménez up front; meanwhile, Fikayo Tomori’s suspension forces a reshuffle in defense.
Atalanta, too, approach the match feeling the weight of a missed season. Raffaele Palladino’s men failed to get past Lazio in the Coppa Italia, bowing out at home on penalties. They then suffered a painful 2-3 defeat to Cagliari before a goalless draw with Genoa, all but extinguishing their realistic hopes of a European finish through Serie A.
Yet La Dea remain a tricky opponent for Milan: they haven’t lost to the Rossoneri in six straight meetings, and Palladino knows how to set up his teams against Allegri. Scamacca, Raspadori, and Samardzic should give the visitors attacking depth, but a single individual flash won’t be enough here - Atalanta need to withstand Milan’s tempo and avoid crumbling under the hosts’ early pressure.
Probable lineups
- Milan: Maignan, Pavlovic, Gabbia, De Winter, Bartesaghi, Rabiot, Fofana, Loftus-Cheek, Saelemaekers, Giménez, Pulisic.
- Atalanta: Carnesecchi, Scalvini, Hien, Aanor, Bellanova, Ederson, Pašalić, Zappacosta, Samardzic, Raspadori, Scamacca.
Match facts and head-to-head
- Atalanta are unbeaten in their last six head-to-head clashes with Milan.
- Five of the last six meetings between these sides have seen both teams score.
- Milan have won just one of their last five matches, while Atalanta, after their cup exit, failed to beat either Cagliari or Genoa.
- Atalanta have avoided defeat in nine of their last eleven Serie A visits to Milan’s ground (four wins, five draws).
- No more than 3 goals have been scored in the last six Serie A meetings between these sides at San Siro.
- Milan have taken more than five corners in just one of their last seven home Serie A meetings with Atalanta.
- Atalanta have received at least two yellow cards in seven of their last eight Serie A away games.
Prediction
Milan will be playing under immense pressure: they’ve let their rivals get dangerously close and simply can’t afford another late-season slip. Yet their current attacking form is highly questionable, and Tomori’s absence adds vulnerability in defense against a side adept at seizing moments in this fixture. Atalanta, while also far from their best, might benefit from their underdog status. La Dea know how to frustrate Milan, and Palladino is well-versed in disrupting Allegri’s rhythm. The most logical outcome seems a cautious encounter, with both sides scoring - but no winner emerging.
