Jan Novak
Dailysports's expert
In the return leg of the UEFA Europa League semi-final, Athletic Bilbao will face Manchester United. The clash is set for Old Trafford on Thursday, May 8, with kick-off scheduled for 21:00 Central European Time. I’m offering a bet focused on the goal tally in this match.
Match preview
Manchester United are enduring a tough spell on their way to their ultimate goal, marred by Premier League failures and glaring inconsistency. On one hand, the club is just a step away from the European final and could secure a Champions League spot, but on the other — it’s been a disaster in the Premier League.
Rúben Amorim, forced into heavy squad rotation due to a spate of injuries, has clearly prioritized the Europa League. In the Premier League, the Portuguese coach often fields very young players with little top-flight experience.
In their recent game against Brentford, Manchester United’s starting XI was the youngest in the club’s Premier League history. Mount finally found the net, but they still couldn’t avoid defeat. In the national championship, the Red Devils have failed to win in six consecutive matches — their worst run in a decade.
Moreover, the team is on the verge of rewriting a negative record in the Premier League. Since the league’s inception, United have never finished as low as they are at risk of this season.
The Basque club still have a strong chance of returning to the Champions League after a lengthy absence. To do so, they need to finish in La Liga’s top five, and at present, Athletic are sitting in fourth place.
Valverde’s men are four points clear of sixth-placed Betis, with remaining fixtures against Alavés, Getafe, Valencia, and Barcelona. There’s a fair chance that by the final round, the Catalans will already be champions, so Bilbao’s prospects look quite promising.
Notably, Athletic have conceded just 26 goals in 34 league matches — the best defensive record in La Liga. They’re even outperforming Diego Simeone’s Atlético in this regard.
As for the Europa League, to be frank, their hopes are all but gone. After a 0-3 home defeat, it’s hard to believe the Spaniards can revive the intrigue at Old Trafford. Everything unraveled after Vivian’s controversial red card, which sparked heated debate over the referee’s decision. Not only did the official award a penalty against the Basques, but he also sent off the defender for a foul that wasn’t the harshest.
Match facts
- Manchester United have lost only once at home in their last eight matches.
- The Red Devils are unbeaten in regular time in this season’s European campaign.
- Athletic have won just one of their last ten away encounters.
- The Bilbao side have failed to score in each of their last four away matches.
- Manchester United average 1.9 goals per home game, while Athletic average 0.75 goals per away match.
Probable lineups
- Manchester United: Onana, Yoro, Maguire, Lindelöf, Dorgu, Mazraoui, Ugarte, Casemiro, Garnacho, Fernandes, Højlund.
- Athletic Bilbao: Agirrezabala, Berchiche, Álvarez, Paredes, De Marcos, Galarreta, Prados Díaz, Berenguer, I. Williams, N. Williams, Guruzeta.
H2H
- The first leg ended with a 3-0 win for the English side.
- The clubs have never drawn: Athletic have two wins to Manchester United’s one.
Prediction
The hosts are slight favourites, and bookmakers are offering massive odds of 22 for Athletic to reach the final. I believe Manchester United will confidently seal their progression in front of the home crowd and book a calm ticket to the final. My recommended bet is on the total goals being under 3.
