Lithuania vs Sweden prediction and H2H — September 3, 2025
Lithuania
Sweden
On September 3, 2025, in the group stage of EuroBasket, Lithuania and Sweden will go head-to-head. Let’s break down the best bet on team scoring in this highly anticipated clash.
Lithuania
The Lithuanian national team stands among Europe’s elite, currently ranked 6th in Europe and 10th in the world. Their last EuroBasket triumph came back in 2003. In the previous tournament, Lithuania advanced from the group stage but bowed out to Spain in the Round of 16, ending their campaign prematurely.
At EuroBasket 2025, Lithuania got off to a confident start, crushing Great Britain 94-70 and Montenegro 94-67, both by wide margins. However, they suffered a heavy setback in their last group game, falling to Germany 88-107. In their most recent outing, Lithuania delivered a smart tactical performance against Finland, securing an 81-78 win to cement their status as the main contender for second place in the group—provided they win this upcoming match. The team, however, faces adversity: their leader Rokas Jokubaitis is sidelined with injury, making the fight for a playoff spot significantly tougher without him.
When it comes to head-to-head clashes with Sweden, Lithuania holds a clear advantage: the teams have met three times in history, and Lithuania has claimed victory in all encounters, scoring 95 points or more each time.
Sweden
Sweden’s national team is ranked 25th in Europe and 49th globally. They missed out on EuroBasket 2022, and their campaign at EuroBasket 2025 has been anything but smooth. In their opener, the Swedes narrowly lost to the hosts Finland, 90-93, despite a stellar 28-point performance from Ludde Hakanson. Against Germany, Sweden suffered a heavy 83-105 defeat. They finally managed their first win, beating Great Britain 78-59.
In their latest game—a near do-or-die battle for fourth place in the group against Montenegro—Sweden put up a valiant fight: midway through the fourth quarter, they led by five points, but Montenegro rallied late, handing Sweden an 81-87 loss. Pelle Larsson was the standout for Sweden, dropping 28 points.
As a result, Sweden has all but missed their chance to progress from the group: next up is a daunting matchup with Lithuania—a team they’ve never beaten—while Montenegro faces Great Britain, leaving Sweden in a tough predicament.
Key facts and head-to-head stats
- Lithuania has won 13 of their last 15 games.
- Sweden has lost 7 of their last 8 games.
- Lithuania has won the last 3 head-to-head meetings.
- 4 of Sweden’s last 5 games have gone over 167.5 total points.
Prediction for Lithuania vs Sweden
Lithuania comes into this contest as the clear favorite. Despite losing their leader Rokas Jokubaitis, the team desperately needs a win to lock in second place in the group. Sweden, meanwhile, finds itself in a tough spot and will fight until the final buzzer, so we can expect a fast-paced, high-scoring encounter from both sides. My pick for this game: total points over 164.5 at odds of 1.61.
