Lithuania vs Poland prediction, H2H and probable lineups - October 12, 2025
One of the clashes of the 8th round of the 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifying campaign will take place on Sunday, October 12, at the Darius and Girėnas Stadium in Kaunas, where Lithuania will host the Polish national team. Here’s a bet suggestion for this match with solid chances of success.
Match preview
Edgaras Jankauskas’ side has lost all hope of progressing from the group, but that doesn’t mean the Lithuanians will lack motivation. In the previous round, they put up a spirited fight against Finland, narrowly losing 1-2. Throughout six matches in the current qualifying cycle, the Baltic team hasn’t recorded a single win, but all their defeats have come by the narrowest of margins.
On home turf, Lithuania has proven capable of challenging even stronger opponents — against the Netherlands, they only lost 2-3. Notably, in five of their last six home qualifiers, Lithuania exchanged goals with their rivals, making them a dangerous underdog.
Poland remains in the hunt for the top spot in the group and approaches this match in high spirits after a friendly win over New Zealand (1-0). In competitive matches under Jan Urban, the team has been consistent: 9 wins in their last 13 qualifiers. Poland also secured vital results in September — a draw with the Netherlands (1-1) and a win over Finland (3-1).
However, Poland can be vulnerable away from home — over their last seven away qualifiers, they failed to win on four occasions. Moreover, they have only twice won by more than one goal, and both times it was against clear outsiders. This increases the likelihood of a hard-fought battle in Kaunas.
Probable lineups
- Lithuania: Gertmonas, Armalas, Lasickas, Sirvys, Girdvainis, Tutyskinas, Sirgedas, Gineitis, Vorobjovas, Golubickas, Paulauskas.
- Poland: Skorupski, Cash, Kiwior, Bednarek, Wisniewski, Szymanski, Kaminski, Slisz, Zalewski, Swiderski, Lewandowski.
Match facts and head-to-head
- Lithuania is winless in World Cup qualification for eight consecutive matches.
- Poland has lost only 2 of their last 13 qualifying games.
- In 5 of Lithuania’s last 6 home qualifiers, both teams have scored.
Prediction
Poland is clearly superior in terms of squad and quality, but Lithuania knows how to make life difficult for favorites on their own turf. The visitors rarely dominate away from home, while the hosts consistently fight for points. So even if Poland wins, the score is likely to be close. Our recommended bet for this match is “Lithuania with a +1.5 handicap” at odds of 1.68.
