Italy vs Estonia prediction, H2H and probable line-ups - September 5, 2025
One of the fixtures of the 5th round of the 2026 World Cup qualifiers will take place on Friday at the Gewiss Stadium in Bergamo, where Italy will host the national team of Estonia. Let’s take a look at a wager on the outcome of this clash that comes with solid chances of success.
Match preview
After a frustrating run of results, Italy finally broke their winless streak by defeating Moldova 2-0. Prior to that, the Azzurri had gone four games without a victory, failing to score in three consecutive matches. The win was a much-needed morale boost, especially in light of the recent coaching change — Gennaro Gattuso has replaced Spalletti at the helm.
Italy remain the group favorites, but they need to keep picking up points to secure direct qualification for the World Cup. The team traditionally performs strongly at home, seldom allowing opponents to score, although their attack still lacks flair and consistency. Under Gattuso, expect pragmatic and disciplined football with an emphasis on ball control and a solid defense.
Estonia have struggled in this qualifying cycle, losing three out of four matches. In the last round, they narrowly fell 0-1 to an in-form Norway, managing to put up a fight and avoid a heavy defeat. This shows that Estonia prefers to play defensively, limiting their opponents’ chances in front of goal.
Despite their struggles, Estonia regularly find opportunities to score, especially away from home, making them a potentially tricky opponent. However, against a well-organized Italian side, even a draw would be a tall order — the gap in individual quality is simply too vast.
Probable line-ups
- Italy: Donnarumma, Bastoni, Calafiori, Di Lorenzo, Dimarco, Barella, Rovella, Tonali, Frattesi, Raspadori, Retegui
- Estonia: Hein, Schöning-Larsen, Paskotsi, Kuusk, Tamm, Sumets, Shein, Vassiljev, Käit, Anier, Sappinen
Match facts and head-to-head
- Italy have kept a clean sheet in 6 of their last 7 World Cup qualifying matches
- Estonia have lost 4 of their last 5 away games in World Cup qualification
- Italy have won each of the last 3 head-to-head meetings by more than one goal
Prediction
Italy, despite the coaching change, should have little trouble dispatching an opponent of Estonia’s caliber, especially on home soil. The visitors are capable of setting up a tight defense, but against Italy’s tactical discipline, their chances are slim. Don’t expect a goal fest — a modest but confident win for the hosts seems most likely.
