Goals back in the spotlight: prediction for Ajax vs AEK Larnaca - 10.07.2026
The friendly clash between Amsterdam's Ajax and Cyprus' AEK Larnaca is set for Friday at the Sportpark de Eendracht arena in Amsterdam. Both teams are deep into their summer preparations for the new season and are keeping one eye on the upcoming Conference League qualifiers, so this sparring session is expected to be a crucial test of tactical cohesion and physical readiness.
Ajax: a new course after a painful season
Ajax approaches the summer in the unusual position of a team that hasn't lifted a trophy for four years. Last season, the Amsterdam side finished only fifth in the Eredivisie, missing out on the Champions League spots by three points and trailing runaway leaders PSV by a hefty 28 points.
They had to fight their way into European competition through the playoffs, defeating Groningen 2-0 and then scraping past Utrecht 1-1 (4-3 on penalties). Summer preparations got off to a rocky start: on July 4, Michel's side fell 1-3 to Panathinaikos, and during the off-season, the club has also been linked with a move for Girona's Ukrainian striker, Vladyslav Vanat.
AEK Larnaca: Cyprus runners-up are building momentum
AEK finished last season in second place in the Cypriot championship, climbing into the runners-up spot on the final matchday. The title chase was out of reach, as the gap to the leaders was nearly twenty points, but the strong finish showed real character.
Larnaca have already played two friendlies in July, both of which turned out to be high-scoring affairs. First, AEK edged out Dutch side Helmond Sport 2-1, then narrowly lost 2-3 to Greek outfit PAOK, once again proving that their matches are packed with chances at both ends.
Match facts and head-to-heads
- Ajax have won just 1 of their last 6 matches, suffering 2 defeats.
- In 3 of Ajax's last 4 games, under 2.5 goals have been scored.
- In each of AEK's last 4 matches, the bet "over 2.5 goals & both teams to score" has come in.
Defenses not yet ready for the season: prediction for Ajax vs AEK Larnaca
Both teams are still in pre-season working mode, which almost always increases the risk of defensive errors. Ajax are rebuilding after a disappointing campaign and searching for new solutions, while AEK have already shown in their July friendlies that they're capable of scoring - and regularly allow their opponents to create chances too.
Given recent results, the logic points to a shootout. Ajax have the motivation to bounce back after the Panathinaikos defeat, while AEK have consistently played open, attacking football in recent matches. That's why backing both teams to score looks a safer bet than trying to pick the winner.
