Germany - Italy prediction, H2H and probable lineups - March 23, 2025
The second leg of the 2024/25 Nations League quarter-finals between Germany and Italy will take place on March 23 at Signal Iduna Park in Dortmund. In the first match, the German team secured a narrow 2-1 victory, and now they aim to consolidate their lead and secure a spot in the semi-finals on home turf. I suggest betting on goals in this match with a favorable odds.
Match preview
Julian Nagelsmann's squad faced a challenging situation in the first match, conceding an early goal, but they found the strength to turn the game around and won 2-1. To advance to the Nations League semi-finals, the "Die Mannschaft" needs only to avoid defeat in the return match.
In the current tournament, the German team has shown excellent form, remaining unbeaten in the last eight games (5 wins, 3 draws), scoring in each of these matches. At home, Germany has won four of their last five Nations League matches (1 loss), underscoring their home strength.
The defeat in the first match was Italy's second consecutive loss in the Nations League, which is surprising given that the team had not lost twice in a row in the tournament before. To reach their third Nations League semi-final, Italy must win the return leg by at least two goals.
On the road, "Squadra Azzurra" has been consistent, winning 5 of their last 6 matches, though 3 of these victories were by a narrow one-goal margin. If the result repeats, extra time will be needed.
Probable lineups
- Germany: Oliver Baumann – Antonio Rüdiger, David Raum, Jonathan Tah – Joshua Kimmich, Jamal Musiala, Nadiem Amiri, Pascal Groß, Leon Goretzka – Leroy Sané, Jonathan Burkardt
- Italy: Gianluigi Donnarumma – Alessandro Bastoni, Riccardo Calafiori, Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Destiny Udogie – Nicolò Barella, Nicolò Rovella, Sandro Tonali – Moise Kean, Giacomo Raspadori, Matteo Politano
Match facts and head-to-head
- Both teams scored in 8 of Italy's last 9 Nations League matches.
- In 5 of the last 6 away games, the Italians scored at least two goals.
- In 4 of the last five encounters between these teams, the "Both teams to score" bet has won.
Prediction
Bookmakers favor Germany, offering odds of 1.79 for a "Die Mannschaft" victory. We believe a more promising bet is on "Both teams to score" with odds of 1.80.
