Flamengo will keep chasing the leader: prediction for the match Mirasol vs Flamengo — 17.08.2026
In the early hours of August 17, one of the most intriguing matches of the 23rd round of Brazil's Serie A will take place: Mirasol will host Flamengo at the José Maria de Campos Maia Stadium. Locally, the match kicks off on August 16 at 18:30. The hosts sit 15th with 23 points, still battling to stay in the top flight, while Flamengo are second with 42 points and looking to close the gap on leaders Palmeiras.
- Also read: Can Cruzeiro end Corinthians' unbeaten run in Serie A? Prediction for Corinthians vs Cruzeiro.
Mirasol: the league remains the main priority
The hosts are currently navigating an extremely challenging schedule. On Thursday, Rafael Guanaes' side played the first leg of their Copa Libertadores round of 16 tie against LDU and couldn't hold onto their lead — 1:1. Mirasol took the lead through Eduardo, but conceded an equalizer in the 81st minute. On August 20, the team faces a daunting return leg in Quito.
Nevertheless, Serie A remains the club's top priority. Mirasol are just a few points above the relegation zone, so Guanaes has no intention of sacrificing the league for the Libertadores and plans to field the strongest lineup available. Their last league outing ended in a 1:3 defeat to Cruzeiro, and they are now winless in four straight matches across all competitions.
There are some squad concerns, though. Negueba and Aldo Filho remain sidelined with injuries, while center-back Gabriel Knesovich is a doubt due to knee pain. There are no suspensions for the hosts. If Knesovich doesn't recover in time, Willian Machado is expected to partner Joao Victor in the heart of defense once again.
A particular issue for Mirasol in recent games has been mistakes when playing the ball out from the back with short passes. Midfielder Neto Moura openly admitted ahead of the Flamengo clash that such turnovers have been costly in recent matches, although the hosts have no plans to abandon their playing style. Against a team with Flamengo's pressing ability and quality, this risk could prove decisive.
Flamengo: a powerful squad despite absences
Flamengo remain firmly in the title race. Leonardo Jardim's side have 42 points before this round, while Palmeiras lead with 48 — though the Rio de Janeiro club have a game in hand. In the previous round, the Rubro-Negro cruised to a 2:0 win over Vitoria, and midweek earned a 1:1 away draw with Cruzeiro in the first leg of their Libertadores round of 16 tie.
Flamengo's away form this season has been especially impressive. They boast the second-best away record in Serie A: six wins, three draws, and just two losses in 11 matches. During this stretch, Flamengo have scored 20 goals and conceded only 10, failing to score in just one of those 11 away fixtures.
The favorites do have significant personnel issues. Bruno Henrique didn't travel due to an ankle injury, Nico de la Cruz has a thigh muscle injury, Alex Sandro is still recovering from a calf issue, Vitao is also sidelined, and Everton Cebolinha misses out after illness. On the bright side, Luiz Araujo is back in the squad after recovering from a knee injury.
Even with this list of absentees, Flamengo's attacking resources remain formidable. Jardim has Pedro, Samuel Lino, Gonzalo Plata, Carrascal, Arrascaeta, and the recently fit-again Lucas Paqueta at his disposal. Paqueta already reminded everyone of his class, scoring after coming off the bench in the Libertadores clash against Cruzeiro.
Probable lineups
- Mirasol: Walter — Igor Formiga, Joao Victor, Willian Machado, Reinaldo — Japa, Neto Moura, Eduardo — Alesson, Edson Carioca, Bruno Santos.
- Flamengo: Rossi — Varela, Leo Pereira, Leo Ortiz, Ayrton Lucas — Pulgar, Jorginho — Arrascaeta, Plata, Samuel Lino — Pedro. Lucas Paqueta and Carrascal are also realistic options to start.
Statistics and key facts
- Mirasol have not won any of their last four matches in all competitions.
- Flamengo have the second-best away record in Serie A — 6 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses.
- In 11 away league matches, Flamengo have scored 20 goals and conceded 10.
- Last season, the teams met twice: Flamengo won 2:1 at home, while the match at Mirasol's ground ended in an entertaining 3:3 draw.
- Mirasol are fighting for survival, while Flamengo continue their pursuit of first place.
Squad depth should be decisive: Mirasol vs Flamengo prediction
The hosts cannot be underestimated. Mirasol know how to make home advantage count, and in their current situation, points in the league are absolutely vital for Rafael Guanaes' team. What's more, the hosts are set to field their strongest lineup, despite an upcoming trip to high-altitude Quito.
However, the congested schedule could work against Mirasol. They endured a tough match with LDU just three days before facing Flamengo, and their ability to rotate effectively is far more limited. Recent matches have also exposed issues with playing out from the back — mistakes that could prove especially costly against Flamengo's pressing game.
Flamengo also have one eye on the Libertadores, but Jardim's squad depth allows them to handle such a demanding schedule much more comfortably. Even without Bruno Henrique, de la Cruz, and several others, the visitors can still field an attack featuring Pedro, Samuel Lino, Arrascaeta, Plata, or Paqueta. Add to this the second-best away record in the league and huge motivation after Palmeiras dropped points.
In terms of squad quality, current form, and away performances, the edge goes to the Rio giants.
Prediction: Flamengo win.
