Finland vs Lithuania prediction and H2H – September 1, 2025
Finland
Lithuania
On September 1, 2025, the group stage of EuroBasket will feature a showdown between the national teams of Finland and Lithuania. Let’s break down a bet on the teams’ scoring potential in this clash.
Finland
Hosts of this year’s EuroBasket, Finland ranks 13th in Europe and 20th in the world. The team put on a solid performance at the previous tournament: they advanced from the group and made it to the quarterfinals, where they fell to the eventual champions, Spain.
The Finns have started their home EuroBasket campaign with confidence and remain undefeated so far. They edged out Sweden 93-90 in their opener, cruised past Great Britain 109-79, and most recently dismantled Montenegro 85-65. The squad’s leader is Lauri Markkanen, who averages 32.3 points and 7 rebounds per game. However, Finland has struggled against Lithuania—losing five of their last six encounters.
Lithuania
Lithuania is one of Europe’s powerhouses, holding the 6th spot in the continental rankings and 10th globally. However, their last EuroBasket triumph dates back to 2003. At the previous tournament, Lithuania advanced from the group but bowed out in the Round of 16 after falling to Spain.
At EuroBasket 2025, Lithuania started strong—beating Great Britain 94-70 and Montenegro 94-67 in convincing fashion. However, they suffered a tough 88-107 loss to Germany in their last outing. The team is led by Rokas Jokubaitis, who averages 17.7 points and 8.3 assists per game, and Jonas Valančiūnas, who dominates the boards with an average of 6 rebounds per game. Lithuania enters this matchup as the favorite, but facing the tournament hosts on their home court will be anything but a walk in the park.
Key facts and head-to-head
- Finland is on an 8-game winning streak.
- Finland has won 4 of their last 5 home games.
- 4 of Finland’s last 5 games have gone over 182.5 points.
- Lithuania has won 12 of their last 14 matches.
- Lithuania has won 5 of the last 6 head-to-head meetings.
Finland vs Lithuania match prediction
Lithuania comes in as the favorite and needs a win to solidify their spot in the knockout stages. On paper, Lithuania has the stronger roster, but Finland is playing at home and currently showing great form—making this a far less predictable contest. Both teams have delivered high-scoring basketball throughout the tournament, so expect an open, attacking game with plenty of points. My pick for this matchup: total points over 172 at odds of 1.6.
