Deportivo Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction, Match Preview and Probable Lineups | May 23, 2026
On May 23, 2026, Deportivo Alaves host Rayo Vallecano in Round 38 of La Liga. While Rayo continue battling for a European qualification spot, Alaves enter the final round in strong form and look to finish the season on a positive run in front of their home fans.
Match Preview
Deportivo Alaves come into this match after two extremely important victories by identical 1-0 scorelines. The team first produced a surprise win over already-crowned champions Barcelona before defeating Oviedo in another solid performance. Those results allowed Alaves to comfortably secure their La Liga status for next season.
The team’s overall form has improved significantly in recent weeks. Alaves suffered only 1 defeat across their last 5 matches, recording 3 victories and 1 draw during that stretch.
Home performances have also been relatively solid. Across their previous 6 home matches, Alaves lost only once, while also recording 2 victories and 3 draws.
Matches involving Alaves have frequently seen goals from both sides this season, with both teams scoring in 8 of the club’s last 10 matches overall. However, the team have recently become far more cautious defensively. Each of Alaves’ last 3 matches finished under 2.5 goals, and the team kept clean sheets in both of their previous 2 fixtures.
Historically, Alaves also hold a slight home advantage against Rayo Vallecano. The hosts won 3 of the last 4 home meetings against the Madrid side, while every one of those matches finished under 2.5 goals and featured only one team scoring.
Rayo Vallecano, meanwhile, arrive in excellent form. The Madrid club are unbeaten in their last 8 matches across all competitions and secured an impressive 2-0 victory over Villarreal in the previous La Liga round.
Rayo currently sit 8th in the standings and remain only 1 point behind the Conference League qualification places. At the same time, the club are also preparing for the UEFA Europa Conference League Final against Crystal Palace, meaning squad management and energy conservation could become important factors here.
Matches involving Rayo Vallecano continue to follow a very cautious pattern. Each of the team’s last 6 matches finished under 2.5 goals, while the Madrid side kept clean sheets in 4 of those games.
Away form has also remained stable recently, with Rayo unbeaten in their last 3 away matches across all competitions.
Offensively, Rayo are not among the league’s most explosive teams. The club scored only 39 goals in 37 La Liga matches this season — almost exactly 1 goal per game. Overall, 65% of Rayo’s league matches finished under 2.5 goals, while both teams scored in only 16 of their 37 fixtures.
Possible Starting Lineups
- Deportivo Alaves: Sivera, Koski, Tenaglia, Parada, Rebbach, Guridi, Blanco, Suarez, Perez, Diabate, Toni Martinez.
- Rayo Vallecano: Batalla, Vertrouwd, Mendy, Lejeune, Espino, Diaz, Balliu, Gumbau, F. Perez, Nteka, Camello.
Key Points
- Deportivo Alaves won their last 2 matches by a 1-0 scoreline.
- Alaves lost only 1 of their last 5 matches.
- Under 2.5 goals landed in Alaves’ last 3 matches.
- Rayo Vallecano are unbeaten in their last 8 matches.
- Under 2.5 goals landed in each of Rayo’s last 6 matches.
Head to Head Statistics
Meetings between Deportivo Alaves and Rayo Vallecano have consistently been very low-scoring in recent years. Each of the last 9 head-to-head matches finished under 2.5 goals. Across the previous 10 meetings overall, Rayo Vallecano hold a slight advantage with 6 victories compared to 4 wins for Alaves.
Prediction
Both teams enter the final round in strong recent form. Alaves already secured their place in La Liga for next season and can now focus on extending their positive run, while Rayo Vallecano continue fighting for a European qualification spot ahead of their upcoming Conference League Final. Considering the cautious tactical approach recently shown by both clubs, the consistently low-scoring head-to-head history, and the defensive stability displayed in recent weeks, this matchup strongly points toward another tight and controlled encounter. Neither side is likely to force an overly aggressive tempo, especially with Rayo needing to carefully manage energy before a major European final. Recommended bet: Under 3 Goals
