Can Celje break Sturm's home resistance? Sturm Graz vs Celje prediction – 05.11.2026
On Thursday, November 5, 2026, Sturm Graz will host Slovenian champions Celje at the Merkur Arena in the fourth round of the UEFA Europa League league phase. Kick-off is scheduled for 21:00 Central European Time. The Austrian side have collected four points from their opening three matches, while Celje have managed just one. Both teams desperately need a positive result to strengthen their chances of progressing to the knockout rounds.
Sturm Graz: European home strength, but defensive problems remain
Sturm Graz have produced contrasting performances in the Europa League this season. Fabio Ingolitsch's team opened their campaign with a goalless draw against Rennes before suffering a disappointing 3-0 defeat away to Bournemouth. However, the Austrians responded impressively in the third round, defeating Marseille 1-0 at home thanks to an early goal from Oumar Diakité.
That victory demonstrated Sturm's ability to compete against stronger opponents through disciplined defending, aggressive pressing and efficient counterattacks. The Austrian side have yet to concede a goal in their two European home matches, although scoring just once in three tournament fixtures highlights their attacking limitations.
Their domestic performances have been considerably less convincing defensively. After an emphatic 6-1 derby victory over Grazer AK, Sturm were held to a 2-2 draw by Ried before suffering a surprising 3-2 Austrian Cup defeat against Austria Lustenau.
In their latest Bundesliga encounter on November 1, Ingolitsch's side needed a stoppage-time penalty from Diakité to rescue a 1-1 draw against Wolfsberger AC. Sturm have now conceded six goals across their last three domestic competitive matches.
Personnel problems also complicate the situation. Otar Kiteishvili and Filip Rózga are currently listed among the injured players, while Nelson Weiper, Seedy Jatta and Emran Soglo are also unavailable according to pre-match injury reports.
Much of Sturm's attacking responsibility therefore falls on Diakité, who has scored in both of the team's latest Europa League and Bundesliga fixtures. His physical presence, movement behind defenders and ability to convert chances could prove decisive against Celje.
Celje: A difficult European campaign, but signs of attacking improvement
Celje entered the Europa League with considerable ambitions after winning the Slovenian championship, but their first appearances in the league phase exposed some serious weaknesses.
The Slovenian club began with a 2-0 defeat against Bayer Leverkusen before suffering a disappointing 3-0 home loss to Omonia Nicosia. Those results immediately placed the team under pressure, particularly given their defensive vulnerability against opponents capable of playing at a higher tempo.
The managerial situation also changed early in the season. Zoran Zeljković replaced Vitor Campelos in September and has been working to establish a more balanced and effective playing system.
There were encouraging signs in the third European fixture, when Celje fought back from two goals down to secure a dramatic 2-2 draw against Salzburg. Blaž Kramer reduced the deficit shortly after half-time before Armandas Kučys scored a late equalizer to earn the Slovenian champions their first Europa League point.
Celje have also shown improvement in recent domestic matches. Following a 1-1 draw away to Olimpija Ljubljana, they produced an impressive 4-0 victory over Nafta on November 1. Mario Kvesić and Kučys each scored twice, demonstrating the attacking quality available to Zeljković.
Svit Sešlar provides creativity between the lines, while Benjamin Verbič offers experience and movement in wide positions. Kramer and Kučys give Celje several options in the final third, particularly when the opposition leaves space during defensive transitions.
However, their defensive record remains a major concern. Seven goals conceded in three Europa League matches suggest that maintaining a clean sheet in Graz will be extremely difficult.
Probable lineups
- Sturm Graz: Helac; Malić, Quarshie, Koller; Hödl, Gorenc Stanković, Matoshi, Balbo; Weinhandl; Seidl, Diakité.
- Celje: Leban; Širvys, Bejger, Tutyškinas, Avdyli; Zabukovnik, Kvesić, Sešlar; Verbič, Kramer, Kučys.
Match facts and key trends
- Sturm Graz have kept clean sheets in both Europa League home matches this season.
- Sturm have conceded six goals in their last three domestic competitive fixtures.
- Celje have conceded seven goals across their opening three Europa League matches.
- Celje have scored seven goals in their last three matches across all competitions.
- Sturm have four points after three European rounds, compared with Celje's one.
Prediction: Both teams have enough attacking quality to find the net
Sturm Graz deserve to be considered favorites, particularly after their impressive home victory against Marseille. Ingolitsch's team are capable of playing disciplined football in European competition, and their physical intensity should create significant problems for the Slovenian visitors.
However, their recent defensive performances in domestic competitions suggest that another clean sheet is far from guaranteed. Celje arrive after scoring four goals against Nafta and have already demonstrated their attacking resilience against Salzburg.
The Slovenian champions will probably struggle to contain Sturm for the entire match, especially with Diakité in good scoring form. Nevertheless, Zeljković's side possess enough individual quality to exploit the spaces left behind by the Austrian team's attacking movements.
An open encounter is not guaranteed, but both teams have clear defensive vulnerabilities and enough attacking options to take advantage of them. A 2-1 home victory or a 1-1 draw look like realistic scenarios, making goals from both sides an attractive selection.
Prediction: Both teams to score – Yes.
