Burnley vs Liverpool prediction, H2H and probable lineups — 14 September 2025
On 14 September 2025, as part of the 4th round of the English Premier League, Burnley will host Liverpool. Kick-off is scheduled for 15:00 Central European Time. Let’s analyze the best bet for the winner in this encounter.
Burnley
Burnley have returned to the Premier League after a year away, and so far, the adaptation to top-flight football hasn’t been easy. In the opening round, the club suffered a heavy 0-3 defeat away to Tottenham, but then managed to delight their fans with a home win over Sunderland, who also earned promotion to the EPL this season. However, in their next game, Burnley once again lost, this time away to Manchester United with a 2-3 scoreline. As a result, after three rounds, the team has just 3 points and sits 14th in the table.
On top of that, Burnley successfully navigated the first round of the EFL Cup, defeating Derby County 2-1 to advance to the round of 16, where they will face Cardiff. Burnley’s home form commands respect — the club has won six consecutive matches at their own stadium, including the tail end of last season in the Championship. However, their head-to-head record with Liverpool at Turf Moor is discouraging: in the last six home games against the Reds, Burnley have suffered defeat every time.
Liverpool
Liverpool, the reigning champions of England, have kicked off the new season in commanding style, underlining their title ambitions. During the off-season, the club significantly strengthened their squad, signing several star players and adding even more firepower and depth. Despite a Super Cup defeat to Crystal Palace on penalties, Liverpool have been playing stable and high-scoring football in the league.
The Merseysiders started with three consecutive wins and top the table. In their opening match, they defeated Bournemouth 4-2 at Anfield, then snatched a dramatic 3-2 victory away at Newcastle in the dying moments. Before the international break, Liverpool confirmed their status as favorites by edging Arsenal 1-0. The team heads into the clash with Burnley in great spirits and full of confidence.
Head-to-head stats also favor Liverpool: in the last 10 matches against Burnley, the Reds have won 8 times, lost just once, and drawn once.
Probable lineups
- Burnley: Dubravka, Hartman, Ekdal, Esteve, Walker, Cullen, Ugochukwu, Mejbri, Anthony, Bruun Larsen, Foster.
- Liverpool: Alisson, Jones, Konaté, Van Dijk, Kerkez, Gravenberch, Szoboszlai, Salah, Wirtz, Gakpo, Ekitike.
Key facts and head-to-head
- Burnley have won 6 of their last 7 home matches.
- Three of Burnley’s last 4 matches have featured over 2.5 goals.
- Liverpool have won 6 of their last 7 matches.
- Liverpool have won 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
- 9 of Liverpool’s last 10 matches have seen over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams have scored in 7 of Liverpool’s last 8 games.
- Liverpool have won their last 5 head-to-head meetings.
- Liverpool have won their last 5 away meetings against Burnley.
Burnley vs Liverpool prediction
Liverpool approach this fixture as clear favorites. The Reds have started the new season in impressive fashion, winning all three league matches so far and delivering consistent, confident football. Their dominance in head-to-head encounters is also undeniable. Given the form of the reigning champions and their confidence when facing this opponent, another assured victory for Liverpool seems likely. My pick for this match is a Liverpool win with a -1 handicap at odds of 1.52.
