Brighton vs Nottingham Forest: prediction, head-to-head and probable lineups – 01 March 2026
One of the matches of Premier League Matchday 28 will be played on Sunday at the Amex Stadium in Brighton, where Brighton host Nottingham Forest. Let’s focus on the total goals market for this clash: the Seagulls have rediscovered the value of clean sheets, while the visitors are stuck in a scoring drought and their fatigue from European competition is piling up.
Match preview
The 2-0 away win over Brentford was more than just three points for the hosts – it was an emotional reset after a long spell of waiting for a maximum haul. Fittingly, on the day of James Milner’s record, the team played with maximum pragmatism and discipline, keeping a solid buffer above the relegation zone and boosting their confidence ahead of a home run of fixtures.
The key to finally stringing together back-to-back league wins (something achieved only once this season) lies in the quality of their second-phase play and clinical finishing. Welbeck snapped a seven-match goal drought and once again looks the part of a striker who can finish off chances in the box, while his partnership with Mitoma and Gomes adds tactical variety: they can dominate possession or break forward with pace.
For the visitors, there’s a worrying issue: a lack of goals. After Louza found the net against Leeds, Forest have gone through a barren stretch despite taking plenty of shots. The numbers are telling: 56 attempts and a combined xG of 3.86 during this goalless run – this is no longer a case of ‘just bad luck for one match’, but a systematic problem with decision-making and finishing quality.
The psychological pressure is mounting too: the home defeat to Liverpool, with the decisive goal coming in the 97th minute, only highlighted their late-game nerves. On top of that, Forest played a European fixture on Thursday against Fenerbahce (1-2) and are being stretched on two fronts. In such circumstances, any early goal conceded at the Amex could turn the match into a grueling chase.
Probable lineups
- Brighton: Verbruggen, Wieffer, van Hecke, Dunk, Kadioglu, Hinshelwood, Baleba, Gross, Gomes, Welbeck, Mitoma.
- Nottingham Forest: Ortega, Aina, Milenković, Murillo, Williams, Sangaré, Anderson, Hutchinson, Gibbs-White, Hudson-Odoi, Jesus.
Match facts and head-to-head
- In the previous round, Brighton beat Brentford away 2-0, grabbing a crucial three points after a lengthy winless spell.
- Nottingham Forest haven’t scored in the Premier League since Louza’s goal against Leeds: 56 shots and 3.86 xG during this period—without a single goal.
- Brighton’s last three Premier League wins have all been clean sheets, including the reverse fixture against this opponent earlier in the season.
Prediction
The hosts look a bit more balanced and assured in their game structure after the win over Brentford, while Forest are hampered by their prolonged finishing struggles and the added burden of European fixtures. Forest are capable of snatching a goal from set pieces or quick breaks, but overall, the edge is with Brighton. The recommendation here: back ‘Under 2.5 goals’.
