AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax: prediction, head-to-head and probable lineups – 8 February 2026
One of the most intriguing matches of Eredivisie round 22 is set for this Sunday, February 8, at the AFAS Stadium, where AZ Alkmaar will host Amsterdam’s Ajax. Both teams are locked in a battle for the prize positions and a direct ticket to European competitions, making this "Northern Derby" a high-stakes clash for both sides.
Match preview
AZ Alkmaar approach this northern Dutch derby in the midst of a significant rebuild. After Maarten Martens was dismissed in January 2026, Lee-Roy Echteld took the reins, but has yet to stabilize results: the team has slipped to sixth in the Eredivisie. Nevertheless, the AFAS home ground remains a fortress where the "Cheese Farmers" are always a threat. A huge psychological boost for the hosts is the recent cup demolition of Ajax (6-0), a memory still fresh in the minds of the fans.
Squad issues continue to plague AZ, limiting Echteld’s options. The injury to key midfielder Sven Mijnans could be pivotal in this encounter. AZ have favored attacking football this season, but under the new coach, they’re still seeking defensive balance, which has often led to costly mistakes. Against a direct rival, expect Alkmaar to go for an aggressive start, hoping to stun Ajax again with an early goal just as they did in the Dutch Cup.
Ajax, under Fred Grim, are slowly emerging from their crisis and have already overtaken AZ, climbing to fourth place. The Amsterdammers are eager for revenge after last month’s cup humiliation, and their current league form offers plenty of optimism for fans. The driving force in Ajax’s attack has been Mika Godts, who has hit a strong run of form at the start of 2026. Ajax now look a far more balanced side than at the start of the season, though their defense remains far from perfect.
It’s worth noting that Ajax traditionally play boldly on the road, often resulting in a flurry of chances at both ends. They haven’t lost away from home for quite some time—the last defeat was back in early November against Utrecht, 1-2. Considering the table, where a win could consolidate their Champions League spot, Ajax won’t sit back defensively. Expect them to press the hosts into an open, attacking game.
Match facts and head-to-head
- AZ Alkmaar have scored first in five of their last seven matches.
- Both teams have scored in four of AZ Alkmaar’s last five games.
- Over two goals have been scored in nine of Ajax’s last ten matches.
- Both teams have scored in four of Ajax’s last five matches as well.
- In the last ten head-to-head meetings, AZ Alkmaar have dominated: seven wins, three draws, and not a single Ajax victory.
- The reverse fixture earlier this season saw AZ Alkmaar win 2-0.
Probable lineups
- AZ Alkmaar: Owusu-Oduro – Maikuma, Goes, Penetra, de Wit – Koopmeiners, Boogaard, Šín – Sadiq, Steiner Jensen, Parrott
- Ajax: Jaroš – Gaaei, Baas, Itakura, Mokio – Regeer, Klaassen, Steur – Bounida, Godts, Dolberg
Prediction
I expect another goal-fest in this match. Despite the coaching change and AZ’s recent slump, they always attack at home, while Ajax under Fred Grim have become much more prolific. Ajax’s hunger for revenge after the cup rout, combined with AZ’s defensive instability under their new manager, creates perfect conditions for a high-scoring affair. My prediction: over 2.5 total goals.
