A historic night at the new arena: prediction for the match Lugano vs Dukagjini. 23.07.2026.
Dukagjini
On Thursday, July 23, Lugano will host Kosovo's Dukagjini in the first leg of the UEFA Conference League second qualifying round. The match kicks off at 20:30 local time and will be the Swiss club's first official fixture at the brand new AIL Arena. The return leg is set for July 29 in Pristina, so the hosts will be eager to build a comfortable lead before heading to Kosovo.
- Also read: Prediction for the match Železničar Pančevo vs Braga: hosts aim to cause an upset - 22.07.2026.
Lugano: first official match of the season and extra motivation
Mattia Croci-Torti's side finished last season's Swiss championship in fourth place. Lugano looked particularly strong at home, winning ten out of 16 regular season matches and scoring 30 goals. In the final round, the club thrashed Basel 4-0, showcasing their attacking prowess.
The Swiss team also enjoyed a productive preseason. Lugano defeated Memmingen 4-0 and overcame Bundesliga outfit Heidenheim 1-0. The dress rehearsal didn't go as planned: Croci-Torti’s men led against Vaduz thanks to a Kevin Behrens goal, but conceded twice in the final ten minutes and lost 1-2.
Despite that setback, there’s no reason for the hosts to abandon their trademark style. Lugano like to keep possession, utilize overlapping full-backs, and pile on pressure by committing numbers in the final third. Against their Kosovan opponents at home, they’re expected to dictate the tempo from the opening whistle.
The inauguration of the new arena is also a major factor. The first official match at AIL Arena is a European clash, so both the squad’s motivation and the atmosphere in the stands should be sky-high. Moreover, Lugano will kick off their league campaign against Vaduz on July 26, so Croci-Torti needs to get his best XI up to competitive speed quickly.
Dukagjini: Kosovan Cup winners return after a long break
Dukagjini earned their place in the second qualifying round by winning the Kosovan Cup, beating Ferizaj 2-1 in the final. In the national league, the club from Klina finished fourth, collecting 51 points from 36 matches with a goal difference of 42:36.
The end of the domestic season was impressive for the Kosovan side: Dukagjini beat Drita 2-0, Prishtina e Re 3-2, and Ballkani 1-0. Their last recorded official match was on May 31, so the visitors may lack match sharpness compared to their opponents, who have played several friendlies in July.
Dukagjini featured in the Conference League last season (2023/24). They got past Europa FC of Gibraltar 5-3 on aggregate, but then fell to Rijeka, losing 1-7 over two legs in the second round. That experience highlighted the difficulties of facing faster and more technically gifted opponents.
In Lugano, the visitors are likely to sit deep in a compact low block, trying to keep spaces tight between the lines. Dukagjini’s main task is to keep the tie alive for the second leg and avoid conceding an early goal. But soaking up pressure for the full 90 minutes will be tough—especially if the Swiss side finds the net in the first half.
Squad news
Lugano’s starting XI in their final preseason friendly featured David von Ballmoos, Mattia Zanotti, Lukas Mai, Antonios Papadopoulos, Ezgjan Alioski, Giannis Simiiani, Anto Grgic, Uran Bislimi, Daniel Dos Santos, Renato Steffen, and Kevin Behrens. Behrens scored the only goal against Vaduz. All these players—barring any last-minute changes by the coach—are in Lugano’s official Conference League squad list.
Claudio Cassano is still recovering from an ACL rupture and meniscus damage suffered in January. The midfielder is not included in Lugano’s squad for this European round.
Dukagjini’s squad features goalkeepers Kenan Hadzihamza and Egzon Lekaj, defenders Bardoku, Basri, Bytyqi, Luan, and Zenunaj, as well as Mergim Pefqeli, Dukagjin Gashi, Altin Merlaku, Zulfidji, and other first-team regulars.
Pre-match facts
- This will be the first ever meeting between Lugano and Dukagjini.
- Lugano have won four of their last six matches, including friendlies.
- Three of Lugano’s last six games have featured at least three goals.
- Dukagjini ended last season with a four-game unbeaten run in official matches.
- The Kosovan club conceded seven goals to Rijeka in their previous Conference League second round tie.
The hosts will look to settle the tie at home: prediction for Lugano vs Dukagjini
The gulf in league quality, squad depth, and European experience makes Lugano the undisputed favorite. Bookmakers are offering very short odds on a home win, so for better value it’s worth looking at the goals market.
Dukagjini are capable of organized defending, but a long layoff and the challenge of containing a dynamic attack all evening could cause them to falter after the break. Lugano have plenty of firepower: Steffen can create chances between the lines, Behrens is a threat inside the box, while Alioski and Zanotti provide width and constant support from the flanks.
The Swiss side will want to put the tie to bed before the trip to Pristina. The first goal will force the visitors to open up, making Lugano’s advantages in pace and ball movement even more evident. The most likely scorelines are 3-0 or 3-1.
Prediction: Over 2.5 goals.
