Tigres vs Necaxa prediction, H2H and probable lineups - May 11, 2025
One of the second-leg quarterfinal clashes in the Clausura of the Mexican Liga MX will take place on Sunday at the Universitario Stadium, where local side Tigres host Necaxa. Here’s a tip on the outcome of this encounter with solid chances for success.
Match preview
Tigres entered the Liga MX quarterfinals not in the best of moods. The team had just wrapped up their CONCACAF Champions League campaign, losing to Cruz Azul on aggregate. The “Tigers” drew 1-1 at home in the first leg, then suffered a narrow 0-1 defeat away, missing out on a semifinal spot.
In the league, Tigres finished the regular season in fourth place with 33 points from 17 matches, just four points behind leaders Toluca. Over their last five matches in all competitions, Tigres managed just one victory, but also lost only once. In the first leg against Necaxa, the club was frankly lucky to escape with a draw, as their opponents were clearly superior in expected goals—1.72 to 0.31. Nevertheless, Tigres managed to keep a clean sheet—0:0.
Necaxa have shown plenty of fighting spirit in this Clausura. The team went on a hot streak in February and March, racking up four consecutive victories, then adding three more wins shortly after. But there were setbacks: notably, a heavy loss to Toluca (2-5) and a recent away disappointment at Pachuca (3-5).
At the end of the regular season, Necaxa finished fifth with 31 points from 17 games. The team has stuck to its attacking philosophy, netting 36 goals—the second-best tally in the league behind Toluca. This approach comes with risks, but matches involving “the Electricians” are never boring. In the home leg against Tigres, Necaxa looked the better side but couldn’t break through the opposition’s defense. It's worth noting that they performed well on the road during the regular season—five wins and three defeats in nine away games.
Probable lineups
- Tigres: Guzmán, Joaquín, Romulo, Sánchez, Lainez, Aquino, Angulo, Brunetta, Antuna, Ibañez, Gorriarán
- Necaxa: Hernández, Manzanares, Russo, Domínguez, Moreno, Rodríguez, Escamilla, Lértora, Pérez, Hernández, Cisneros
Match facts and head-to-head
- Before the draw in their last match, Tigres had beaten Necaxa six times in a row
- The "over 2.5 goals" bet has come through in three of the last five matches
- The "both teams to score" market landed in two of the last five games
Prediction
Bookmakers have Tigres as favorites in this matchup, offering odds of around 2.01 for the home win. We don’t expect many goals in this one. Our tip: "Under 2.5 goals" at odds of 1.91.
