Real Madrid vs Mallorca prediction, H2H and probable lineups — August 30, 2025
On August 30, 2025, the Santiago Bernabéu will play host to a Matchday 3 La Liga clash as Real Madrid welcomes Mallorca. Kick-off is scheduled for 21:30 Central European Time. Let's take a closer look at the best bet for this encounter.
Real Madrid
Last season was a disappointment for Real Madrid in terms of silverware—they missed out on the Champions League, La Liga title, and the Copa del Rey. Major changes followed in the summer: Xabi Alonso took charge, and the squad received several fresh faces. Under his guidance, Los Blancos are looking to reclaim their spot at the summit. Immediately after La Liga concluded, Madrid headed to the Club World Cup, where they looked confident and advanced to the semifinals, only to be thrashed 0-4 by PSG.
After a short break, Real kicked off the new La Liga season on a high note: a 1-0 home win over Osasuna in the opener, followed by a convincing 3-0 away victory against newly promoted Real Oviedo.
It's also worth highlighting their dominant home record against Mallorca: Real has a massive advantage. Over the last 10 head-to-head meetings at the Santiago Bernabéu, the royal club has won every single time, not even allowing a draw. The last time Mallorca left Madrid with a win was back in 2009, making Real the clear favorite in this fixture.
Mallorca
Mallorca finished last season 10th in the table. They ended up just four points off the European spots, but also only eight above the relegation zone. The islanders showed promise, but faltered down the stretch: in their final seven matches, they managed just one win, two draws, and four defeats—missing out on a European push as a result.
The new campaign hasn't started any better for Mallorca. In the opening round, they lost 0-3 at home to reigning champions Barcelona, and in the second match, also at home, they narrowly escaped defeat to Celta with a late equalizer to salvage a 1-1 draw.
Head-to-heads with Real have been a nightmare for Mallorca. They've failed to win any of the last five encounters—suffering four defeats and picking up just one draw. Their last taste of victory came back in 2023, when they edged Madrid 1-0 on home soil.
Probable lineups
- Real Madrid: Courtois, Carvajal, Rüdiger, Heisen, Carreras, Valverde, Tchouaméni, Rodrygo, Mastantuono, Mbappé, Güler.
- Mallorca: Roman, Mojica, Valjent, Raíllo, Morey, Sánchez, Mascarell, Torre, Darder, Asano, Joseph.
Key facts and head-to-head stats
- Real Madrid have won 8 of their last 9 matches.
- Real Madrid have won 9 of their last 10 home matches.
- 5 of Real Madrid's last 6 matches have seen over 2.5 goals.
- Mallorca are unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 matches.
- 9 of Mallorca's last 10 away matches have seen under 2.5 goals.
- Real Madrid have won 8 of the last 10 head-to-heads.
- Real Madrid have won their last 6 home meetings with Mallorca.
Prediction for Real Madrid vs Mallorca
Real Madrid come into this match in excellent form. They've started the season brightly, with two wins and no goals conceded. At home, Real are traditionally a powerhouse, and their record against Mallorca speaks for itself—Los Blancos have consistently outclassed this opponent at the Bernabéu for years. Mallorca, meanwhile, have yet to convince. A loss to Barcelona and a hard-fought draw with Celta show the team is still searching for their rhythm and clearly lag behind in quality. In these circumstances, the visitors have little chance of causing an upset in Madrid. My bet for this match: Real Madrid to win with a -1.5 handicap at odds of 1.57.
