Qarabag vs Chelsea: Can Qarabag Pull Off a Home Sensation?

Qarabag FK vs Chelsea prediction Getty Images
Champions League (Round 4) 05 nov 2025, 12:45
Finished
2 : 2
International, Baku, Tofiq Bakhramov Stadium
Leandro Andrade
29'
Marko Jankovic
39' (P)
16'
Estevao
53'
Alejandro Garnacho

In the fourth round of the UEFA Champions League, Qarabag will host Chelsea on Wednesday, November 5. The match kicks off at 18:45 CET, and here’s my take on it.

Qarabag vs Chelsea: Match Facts and Head-to-Head

  • Qarabag have lost only once in their last 11 matches.
  • Chelsea have won their last two games and suffered just one defeat in seven.
  • Chelsea have scored at least once in 14 consecutive matches.
  • Qarabag are unbeaten in six straight home fixtures.
  • Chelsea have won their last four away matches.
  • Chelsea have not lost a single game this season without scoring.
  • In 80% of their matches, Chelsea score more than 1.5 goals per game.
  • These sides last met in 2017, when Chelsea won both encounters 6–0 and 4–0.

Qarabag vs Chelsea: Match Preview

Qarabag have made a sensational start to their new UEFA Champions League campaign. In their opening match, the Azerbaijani champions came from 0–2 down to stun Benfica 3–2. In the second round, they hosted Copenhagen and earned an impressive 2–0 victory, before finally suffering their first defeat in the third round — a 1–3 loss away to Athletic Bilbao. After three matches, Qarabag have six points. Domestically, they sit second in the Azerbaijan Premier League with 20 points after nine rounds, just one behind the leaders with a game in hand.

Chelsea, meanwhile, are seventh in the English Premier League table. After ten matches, the Blues have collected 17 points. The competition is incredibly tight, and Chelsea trail second place by just two points. In the Champions League, they began with a 1–3 defeat to Bayern Munich but bounced back with two straight wins — a narrow 1–0 over Benfica and an emphatic 5–1 thrashing of Ajax. That puts them on six points after three games and 11th in the overall standings.

Probable Lineups

  • Qarabag: Kochalski; Silva, Mustafazada, Medina, Cafarquliyev; Bicalho, Borges; Duran, Andrade, Zoubir; Akhundzade
  • Chelsea: Sanchez; Gusto, Acheampong, Adarabioyo, Cucurella; Lavia, Fernandez; Estevao, Pedro, Gittens; Guiu

Prediction

Qarabag have already produced remarkable and surprising performances in this year’s Champions League, but facing Chelsea will be an entirely different challenge. The Londoners should have enough quality to prevail. My prediction: Chelsea’s individual total — over two goals.

Prediction on game Chelsea Total over 2
Odds: 1.6
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