Celje vs AEK Larnaca prediction, H2H and probable lineups - July 24, 2025
On Thursday evening, the "Zdezele" Stadium in the Slovenian city of Celje will host the first leg of the UEFA Europa League qualifying quarterfinals between local side Celje and Cyprus's AEK Larnaca. Here’s a pick for the outcome of this clash with a promising value.
Match preview
Celje finished only fourth in last season’s Slovenian league but made up for it with a historic triumph in the Slovenian Cup. The team kicked off the new campaign in style as well, defeating Maribor 2-1 away. Their Europa League qualifier against Azerbaijan’s Sabah turned into a real thriller — an impressive 3-2 win on the road followed by a dramatic 3-3 draw at home, with a goal coming in extra time in the 108th minute.
At home, Celje traditionally play with attacking aggression, averaging over two goals per game (2.11) while conceding 1.42. The squad relies on movement and quick transitions, often grinding out results through relentless pressure — especially in the dying minutes.
AEK Larnaca didn’t have their best season in Cyprus, slipping from runners-up to fourth, but once again found success in the domestic cup. The previous Europa League qualifying round was a real test — after exchanging narrow wins with Partizan, the club punched their ticket via a penalty shootout in Belgrade, despite both sides being reduced by red cards.
The Cypriots play with more discipline and caution: they concede only 0.83 goals per match while scoring 1.61 — a balance built on tactical structure and individual experience. The team boasts endurance and the ability to slow down the tempo, which could be a key advantage on the road against an attacking Celje side.
Probable lineups
- Celje: Sluga — Karnicnik, Tutyskin, Vuklisevic, Nieto — Kvesic, Zabukovnik, Avdili — Sturm, Kovacevic, Iosifov
- AEK Larnaca: Alomerovic — Angel Garcia, Roberge, Milicevic, Ekpolo — Pere Pons, Luis Gustavo, Roden, Chacon — Angielski, Waldo Rubio
Match facts and head-to-head
- Celje have scored in every official match since March 2025.
- AEK won the Cyprus Cup and eliminated Partizan in a dramatic encounter.
- The clubs have never met before — this will be their first head-to-head clash.
Prediction
Celje are the bookmakers’ favorites thanks to home advantage and strong attacking form, but AEK are no pushovers: their structure and experience can offset the pressure. Both teams have already shown in qualifying that they can break down defenses and create chances even in tight games. The recommendation here is to back "Celje to win with a (0) handicap" at odds of 1.60.
