Can Tunisia pull off a shock? Preview of the match against the Netherlands, June 26

Tunisia vs Netherlands prediction Molly Darlington/Getty Images
World Cup (Round 3) 25 june 2026, 19:00
Finished
1 : 3
International, Kansas City, Kansas City Stadium
Hazem Mastouri
54'
3' (OG)
Ellyes Skhiri
7'
Brian Brobbey
62'
Jan Paul van Hecke

On Friday, June 26, the final act of Group F’s stage will unfold at Kansas City Stadium in Missouri. The tournament’s fate has placed Tunisia and the Netherlands at opposite ends of the spectrum, turning this clash into a mere formality for one side and an early farewell for the other. The Dutch have all but secured their ticket to the round of 16 and are now focused on locking down top spot, while the North Africans have lost all chance of advancing, making their last match in the USA a matter of national pride.

Tunisia enter this match under new boss Hervé Renard, who took over the national team in emergency fashion midway through the tournament after a disastrous start. The sweeping changes didn’t spark an instant turnaround in their second outing against Japan, where the Carthage Eagles suffered a heavy 0-4 defeat, but Renard has gained valuable insights for tactical tweaks. The main aim for the acclaimed coach will be to end the North American campaign with a bang, which means Tunisia will set up with a rock-solid defense and crank up the physicality to the max. Midfield talisman Hannibal Mejbri will look to impose a gritty battle in the center of the park, aiming to disrupt the Dutch and prevent them from weaving their usual intricate attacks near the penalty area.

The Netherlands, led by Ronald Koeman, head into their group stage finale riding a wave of momentum and as the group’s undisputed leaders. The Oranje delivered a dazzling performance against Sweden, crushing the Scandinavians 5-1 thanks to the electrifying form of Cody Gakpo and Brian Brobbey, who tore the opposition defense apart with their explosive runs. Koeman knows his side holds the upper hand in quality, but he’ll likely rotate his squad to rest key players ahead of the grueling knockout battles to come. Even with changes, the Dutch plan to play on the front foot, unleashing the pace of Summerville down the flanks to systematically break through the African defensive lines.

The final chord of Group F promises to be a textbook example of European football’s dominance over a wounded but proud underdog. The Netherlands will calmly take control of possession, launch a methodical siege of the opposition’s box, and use intense counter-pressing to immediately snuff out Tunisian counterattacks. Tunisia will bravely set up a deep defensive block, hoping to withstand the favorite’s onslaught through sheer commitment and perhaps a set piece or two late on. But despite all of Renard’s tactical tricks and his side’s fighting spirit, the Dutch class and squad depth will inevitably prevail in the second half, paving the way for a comfortable win and a smooth passage to the playoffs from first place.

Lineups

Tunisia: Dahmen – Valery, Rekik, Talbi, Ali Abdi – Skhiri; Slimane, Hannibal – Chaouat, Saad, Mastouri
Netherlands:
Verbruggen – Dumfries, Van Dijk, Van Hecke, Van de Ven – De Jong, Reijnders, Gravenberch – Malen, Brobbey, Gakpo

Prediction

I believe the Netherlands will deliver a fast-paced, high-scoring display and confidently dispatch their opponents. My prediction: Asian handicap (-2.5) at 1.8

Prediction on game W2(-2.5)
Odds: 1.8
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