Can Derby County End Their Winless Run? Derby County vs Stoke City Prediction | October 17, 2026
Derby County host Stoke City in the 11th round of the Championship on October 17. Both teams suffered defeats in the previous round, but their recent form has been very different. Derby are struggling near the bottom of the table, while Stoke had won five of their previous six matches before losing to Middlesbrough. With both sides showing defensive weaknesses, goals at both ends could be on the cards.
Derby County
Derby County are going through a difficult period, having lost 4–1 away to Queens Park Rangers in their most recent match. The result extended their winless run to six matches.
After 10 Championship matches, Derby sit 23rd in the table with one win, three draws and six defeats. They have scored 9 goals and conceded 19, leaving them with one of the weakest defensive records in the division. Their struggles have been particularly evident at home, where they have yet to win in five league matches, recording two draws and three defeats while conceding 9 goals.
However, Derby have a much stronger record in home meetings with Stoke. They are unbeaten in their last seven such encounters, winning four and drawing three. Their most recent home meeting, in the spring of last season, ended in a 2–0 victory for Derby.
Stoke City
Stoke City suffered a 3–2 home defeat to Middlesbrough in their previous match, ending a six-game unbeaten run that included five wins and one draw. Before that setback, Stoke had recorded three consecutive victories, beating Watford, Sheffield United and Bolton by identical 2–1 scorelines.
Stoke currently sit eighth in the Championship with 16 points from 10 matches. They have recorded five wins, one draw and four defeats, scoring 17 goals and conceding 16. Their matches have often been high-scoring, reflecting their attacking potential but also their defensive vulnerabilities.
Away from home, Stoke have won two, drawn one and lost two of their five league matches, conceding 10 goals. Their recent defensive record remains a concern, as they have conceded in each of their last five matches. At the same time, their consistent scoring gives them a good chance of troubling a Derby side that has struggled to keep opponents out.
Head-to-Head
Derby have won five of the last 10 meetings between the sides, compared with three victories for Stoke and two draws. Stoke have been competitive in more recent encounters, winning two and drawing one of their last four meetings before losing the most recent fixture. Goals have also been common, with over 2.5 goals scored in five of the last seven head-to-head matches.
Key Trends
- Derby County are winless in their last 6 matches.
- Derby County have conceded in their last 6 matches.
- Stoke City have conceded in their last 5 matches.
- 5 of Stoke City's last 6 matches have seen over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in each of Derby County's last 4 matches.
- Both teams scored in each of Stoke City's last 5 matches.
- 5 of the last 7 head-to-head meetings have seen over 2.5 goals.
- Derby County are unbeaten in their last 7 home meetings with Stoke City.
Prediction
Derby County's recent results make it difficult to trust them, particularly given their six consecutive winless games and their failure to win any of their five home league matches. Stoke have been considerably more successful this season, although their latest defeat to Middlesbrough highlighted continuing problems at the back. The visitors have scored 17 goals in 10 league matches but have also conceded 16, while both teams have regularly been involved in matches where they find the net and allow goals at the other end. Derby's strong home record against Stoke offers some encouragement, but their current defensive form makes a clean sheet difficult to expect. With Stoke capable of scoring consistently and both defences showing vulnerabilities, the statistics support the possibility of goals from both sides. Recommended Bet: Both Teams to Score — Yes
