Brighton vs Newcastle prediction, H2H and probable lineups - May 4, 2025
The Matchday 35 Premier League clash between Brighton and Newcastle will take place this Sunday at the Amex Stadium. I’m offering a bet on goals in this matchup, with promising odds.
Match preview
Fabian Hürzeler’s men have finally returned to winning ways, snapping a five-game drought in which the team twice shared the spoils and three times left the pitch empty-handed. The turning point came in a home thriller against West Ham – a 3-2 victory where the Seagulls showed real character to snatch the win at the death. With four rounds to go, Brighton are holding on to ninth place, still retaining a theoretical chance of clinching a European spot – the gap to sixth is six points.
The motivation may not be sky-high, but it’s still there, and given Hürzeler’s side’s character and style, fans are never left bored. Brighton continue to delight with open, entertaining football: in their last 11 Premier League outings, the three-goal mark has been reached every time. The Seagulls’ home stats speak for themselves as well – averaging nearly three goals per match, making Brighton one of the most prolific and unpredictable sides of the season.
Under Eddie Howe, Newcastle are on a strong surge – the team quickly erased the painful 1-4 defeat to Aston Villa by bouncing back with a commanding 3-0 win over Ipswich. That’s their third big win in the last four rounds. Overall, the Magpies have picked up six wins in their last seven Premier League matches, which instantly propelled them into the upper reaches of the table – all the way up to third place and a Champions League spot.
However, there’s no room for complacency as the season draws to a close. The gap to sixth is just two points, meaning any slip-up could prove costly. Newcastle remain one of the league’s most unpredictable teams – either steamrolling their opponents or getting steamrolled themselves. One thing is consistent: goals. In 13 of their last 15 matches, at least three goals have been scored, and in away games, their average goal tally also holds steady at around three per game.
Probable lineups
- Brighton: Bart Verbruggen – Carlos Baleba, Mats Wieffer, Lewis Dunk, Pervis Estupiñán – Jack Hinshelwood, Yasin Ayari – Matt O'Riley, Simon Adingra, Solly March – Danny Welbeck
- Newcastle: Nick Pope – Kieran Trippier, Valentino Livramento, Fabian Schär, Dan Burn – Jacob Murphy, Bruno Guimarães, Sandro Tonali, Joseph Willock, Harvey Barnes – Alexander Isak
Match facts and head-to-head
- The “Both teams to score” bet has landed in 7 of Brighton’s last 8 Premier League matches
- The “Over 2.5 goals” bet has come through in two head-to-head meetings between these sides
- In the reverse fixture, Brighton beat Newcastle 1-0 away
Prediction
The bookmakers give a slight edge to the visitors, pricing a Newcastle win at odds of around 2.33. However, we see more value in betting on “Over 2.5 goals” at odds of 1.65.
