Belgium vs Italy: can the hosts get revenge and join the fight for a quarter-final place?
The two sides come into the match in very different positions: Italy are top of the group, while Belgium need to make up ground.
Belgium: home advantage could make the difference
Mark van Bommel’s side have had a mixed Nations League campaign. After five rounds, Belgium have nine points and sit third in Group A1. They have won three matches and lost two, both defeats coming against France. The most recent meeting with Les Bleus was particularly painful, ending in a 4-1 thrashing. Belgium bounced back in their last match, though, beating Turkey 2-1 away from home.
There are reasons for Belgium to be optimistic, too. They comfortably beat Turkey 3-0 and, in the first meeting between these sides, managed to defeat Italy 2-0 in Milan. That is a significant psychological boost ahead of the home fixture: Belgium have already shown they can cause their opponents problems.
Jeremy Doku’s return to the squad is also worth noting. The Manchester City winger missed the first four matches of the tournament through injury, but is now ready to help his national team again. His pace, dribbling and ability to beat a man in one-on-one situations could prove a major weapon against Italy’s defence.
Romelu Lukaku’s fitness, however, remains a concern.
The striker has been struggling with a thigh problem, so his availability for the match is still in doubt. Zeno Debast and Lois Openda are also among the players dealing with fitness issues. Openda is recovering from a leg injury.
Van Bommel’s main task is to strike a balance between attacking threat and defensive solidity. Belgium have plenty of quality up front: Kevin De Bruyne, Jeremy Doku and Leandro Trossard can create danger from almost nothing. But individual brilliance alone will not be enough against Italy. Belgium will need to move the ball quickly, stretch their opponents’ defence and prevent the visitors from controlling the tempo.
Italy: Mancini is looking to extend the winning run
Italy, under Roberto Mancini, have looked convincing. After five rounds, they have 10 points and top Group A1. Their record stands at three wins, one draw and one defeat. That sole loss came against Belgium at home, when the visitors won 2-0.
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The Azzurri have since bounced back. Italy thrashed Turkey 4-1 away, drew 1-1 with France and then beat Turkey 3-1 at home. In the latest round, the Italians managed to overcome formidable France.
That means the team have collected 10 points from their last four matches and have gradually found a strong rhythm.
Italy have an interesting pool of players. Alessandro Bastoni, Riccardo Calafiori and Federico Dimarco stand out in defence. Nicolo Barella and Sandro Tonali are key figures in midfield, while Gianluca Scamacca and Francesco Pio Esposito are options up front.
Interestingly, Mancini has included several young players in his November squad, among them Alafaggio Cisse, Mattia Liberali, Simone Lontani and Riccardo Cassano. The latter two, however, have primarily been called up to get a taste of the senior national team and should not be considered full-fledged options for the entire international camp.
Italy know just how important this match is. A win would strengthen their position near the top of the table and keep them well placed to reach the quarter-finals. The team also have a chance to avenge their September defeat.
Head-to-head record
Historically, Italy have enjoyed a clear edge in this fixture. According to the Italian Football Federation, the teams have met 27 times: Italy have won 17 matches, Belgium five, and five have ended in draws.
In recent years, however, the rivalry has become far more competitive. In November 2024, Italy beat Belgium 1-0 away thanks to a Sandro Tonali goal. Then, in September 2026, the Belgians claimed a win of their own in Milan, scoring twice without reply.
So the visitors certainly cannot count on the historical record to give them an automatic advantage. Belgium have plenty of reasons to make life difficult for Italy again.
What can we expect from the match?
I expect a tense encounter, with both sides fully aware of the cost of a mistake. Belgium are at home, have plenty of technically gifted attacking players and will surely look to make the most of their home crowd. Italy, meanwhile, are traditionally well organised without the ball, closing down space and punishing opponents for positional errors.
That said, I would not expect an outright defensive contest. Belgium need points, while Italy have shown in recent matches that they are not afraid to take the initiative and create chances. Much will depend on how effectively the hosts can use the flanks and whether the visitors’ defence can cope with Doku and De Bruyne’s individual quality.
Both teams have enough attacking firepower to find the net, but defensive mistakes are also a real possibility.
Italy have looked slightly more consistent throughout the tournament, but Belgium can put up a serious fight on home soil. I think the sides could share the points, leaving the group wide open until the final minutes of the last round.
My prediction: both teams to score — yes.
