In Milan for a place in the Nations League quarter-finals: Italy vs France preview
Italy and France meet on Thursday, November 12, in the fifth round of the UEFA Nations League group stage in League A. The match will be played at San Siro in Milan, with kick-off at 20:45 Central European Time. I’m backing a bet on the goals and the match winner.
Head-to-head and stats
- Italy have conceded in all four of their matches in this edition of the tournament.
- Both teams have scored in each of the last six meetings between these sides.
- France have scored first in each of their last five matches against Italy.
- France have scored all seven of their goals in this Nations League campaign after half-time.
- Italy have not beaten France at home since way back in 1962.
Italy: strong run after a poor start
Italy opened the tournament with a 0-2 home defeat to Belgium but have since stepped up their game considerably. Roberto Mancini’s side have taken seven points from their next three matches: they thrashed Turkey 4-1 away, drew 1-1 with France on the road, then beat the Turkish side 3-1 at home.
Italy have scored eight goals and conceded five in four matches. Crucially, the team bounced back from its disappointing start to pick up points in each of the next three games. In Paris, Italy held firm despite France having the better of the play: after Michael Olise opened the scoring, Alessandro Bastoni hit back, while Gianluigi Donnarumma made several key saves.
Pio Esposito stands out among Italy’s attacking leaders, having already scored twice in this Nations League campaign. Defender Alessandro Bastoni has also found the net twice. Sandro Tonali and Nicolo Barella are key figures in midfield, driving the team’s intensity, moving the ball forward and helping it transition quickly from defence to attack.
Roberto Mancini has called up as many as nine uncapped players for the November fixtures, with plans to give them a test in high-stakes matches. An intriguing historical footnote: Italy have lost their last three games in Milan, having previously gone 96 years unbeaten in the city.
France: Mbappé returns with a chance to reach the quarter-finals early
France have been noticeably more consistent than their opponents across the first four rounds. Zinedine Zidane’s side began with a narrow 1-0 win over Turkey, then beat Belgium away by the same scoreline. In the third round, France drew 1-1 with Italy at home before staging a high-scoring comeback against Belgium in their latest match, winning 4-1. France need only avoid defeat in Milan to qualify for the quarter-finals.
The team were at their most impressive against Belgium: trailing at half-time, the French scored four goals after the break. Substitutes Désiré Doué, Rayan Cherki and Michael Olise played decisive roles. Olise scored twice and also provided an assist. France are adept at raising their game as a match goes on and have plenty of options capable of changing its course.
Michael Olise is the visitors’ main attacking threat. The midfielder has scored four goals in four Nations League matches and is the team’s leading scorer in the competition. The big news for France is the return of Kylian Mbappé, who missed the previous three games with a knee injury. Since recovering, the forward has hit good form at Real Madrid: before the squad was announced, he had scored eight goals in seven appearances for the club.
Unlike Mancini, Zidane is relying on proven performers. The only uncapped player is Paris FC captain Pablo Pagis. France will be without Ousmane Dembélé, William Saliba, Jules Koundé, Maxence Lacroix, Manu Koné, Maghnes Akliouche and Estéban Lepaul, all of whom have been left out of the squad with injuries.
Predicted lineups
- Italy: Donnarumma, Calafiori, Scalvini, Bastoni, Kayode, Romano, Barella, Tonali, Cambiaghi, S. Esposito, F. Esposito.
- France: Maignan, Diouf, Jacquet, Yoro, Gusto, Da Cunha, Cherki, Camavinga, Doué, Olise, Barcola.
What’s the best bet?
This promises to be a tense encounter: Italy need a win to keep their hopes of finishing top alive, while France can afford to take a more cautious approach. The hosts will count on the support of the crowd and their energy in midfield, but the visitors have more attacking options and a considerably stronger defensive record. The combination of Mbappé’s pace and Olise’s individual skill could be particularly dangerous. Italy are capable of making this a contest, but France look the more cohesive side and have more players who can decide a game with a moment of individual brilliance. My prediction: France to avoid defeat, with no more than 4.5 goals in the match.
