Favourites battle for top spot in the group: Italy vs France prediction
The UEFA Nations League fifth-round match between Italy and France will take place on 12 November 2026 at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milan. France lead League A Group 1 with ten points, three clear of Italy. A win would guarantee the visitors a place in the quarter-finals, while the hosts will look to strengthen their hold on second place ahead of a decisive meeting with Belgium.
Italy: Mancini's rebuild is starting to pay off
Since Roberto Mancini's return, the Italian national team have gradually found their stride. An opening 2-0 defeat to Belgium was followed by a convincing 4-1 win over Turkey and a 1-1 away draw with France. Italy beat Turkey again in the last round, 3-1, with Pio Esposito among the stars of the show after scoring his seventh goal for the national team in 13 appearances.
The hosts have been hit by injuries ahead of this crucial clash. Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Giacomo Raspadori, Moise Kean and Gianluca Mancini are all unavailable. The coaching staff will instead be looking to young players, including Alfadjo Cisse, who has scored eight goals in 13 club appearances this season.
France: Zidane's side closing in on the quarter-finals
France have made a strong start to a new chapter under Zinedine Zidane. The Tricolores have taken three wins and a draw from four matches, beating Turkey 1-0 and Belgium twice, 1-0 and 4-1. Their only dropped points came in a home clash with Italy, which ended 1-1.
Their latest win over Belgium was particularly impressive, with France scoring four goals in 15 minutes. However, the team have suffered several setbacks ahead of their trip to Milan: Kylian Mbappé, Marcus Thuram and Esteban Lepaul are injured. On the plus side, Dayot Upamecano returns from suspension, while Michael Olise and Rayan Cherki can provide the cutting edge up front.
Match facts and head-to-head
- France have collected ten points from four Nations League matches, with three wins and one draw
- Italy are unbeaten in their last three matches in the competition, scoring eight goals over that stretch
- The teams' previous meeting ended in a 1-1 draw, while they traded 3-1 away wins in the 2024/25 Nations League campaign
Visitors can get the job done in Milan: Italy vs France prediction
Italy have made clear progress since Mancini's return, but their defence still makes mistakes against strong opposition. France look more consistent and have enough attacking firepower to pose a threat even without the injured Mbappé.
The hosts are sure to make it a tough contest at the San Siro, but France need a win to book their place in the quarter-finals early. A more balanced game and the quality of their players should help Zidane's side come out on top.
