Can Arda Güler stop the Belgian machine? Nations League prediction: Turkey vs Belgium
On Thursday, November 12, 2026, at 18:00 CET, Turkey host Belgium at Gursel Aksel Stadium in Izmir in a Matchday 5 clash in the elite division of the UEFA Nations League (League A, Group 1).
The standings leave little room for interpretation: Turkey are enduring a deep slump, sit bottom of the group in fourth place with no points (four defeats, 2:11 goal difference) and are all but doomed to drop to League B. Belgium have six points (two wins, two defeats) and are locked in a desperate chase with France and Italy for a place in the quarter-finals, so Mark van Bommel's side cannot afford to drop points in Izmir.
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It is worth noting that October's match in Liège ended in a convincing 3-0 win for Belgium.
Turkey
After a disastrous start to the campaign—including a 3-0 defeat to Belgium and a 3-1 loss to Italy—Sergen Yalçın took charge of the team. However, Turkey's personnel problems remain acute: leading centre-back Abdülkerim Bardakcı is suspended after accumulating too many yellow cards, while Kenan Yıldız is injured.
In attack, the hosts are relying heavily on Arda Güler's creativity, Demir Ege Tiknaz's pace and Barış Yılmaz's runs in behind. Roared on by a fervent crowd in Izmir, Turkey will look to bring plenty of emotion to the game, but their positional discipline at the back remains their Achilles' heel.
Belgium
Belgium gave Turkey no chance in October, cruising to a 3-0 victory thanks to a Kevin De Bruyne brace and a goal from substitute Romelu Lukaku.
The Red Devils have plenty of firepower in attack: Charles De Ketelaere, Dodi Lukebakio and Leandro Trossard offer different options in any system. The midfield, led by Nicolas Raskin and Hans Vanaken, controls the tempo with authority. Belgium have the edge over their opponents in transitioning from defence to attack and in their composure in the opposition box.
Probable line-ups
- Turkey: Çakir - Ayhan, Çelik, Kabak, Topçu - Güler, Yüksek, Özcan, Ege Tıknaz - Alper Yılmaz, Akgün
- Belgium: Vandevoordt - Castagne, Ngoy, Mechele, Seys - Keita, Raskin, Vanaken - Lukebakio, Trossard, Lukaku
Prediction
Belgium's motivation is sky-high: they desperately need all three points to stay in the hunt for a top-two finish. Given Turkey's four straight defeats and the holes in their defence without Bardakcı, a routine win for the favourites looks the likeliest outcome. My prediction: Belgium to win.
