Athletic - Arsenal prediction, H2H and probable lineups - 16 September 2025
One of the opening matches of the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League group stage will take place on Tuesday at the San Mamés Stadium in Bilbao, where the local side Athletic will host London’s Arsenal. I’m backing a bet on goals in this clash, with strong odds for success.
Match preview
The Basques return to Europe’s premier club competition after a ten-year absence and are eager to make an immediate impact. Last season, the team finished fourth in La Liga and enjoyed a strong European campaign in the Europa League, reaching the semifinals. Athletic are particularly formidable at home, having won 6 of their last 7 European matches at San Mamés.
Despite being without Nico Williams and Benat Prados, the hosts retain plenty of attacking firepower: they’ve scored in 26 of their last 28 home games in European competitions. Most of their matches tend to be high-scoring affairs—at least three goals were netted in 6 of their last 8 Europa League encounters.
The Londoners enter the Champions League group stage for the third consecutive season, brimming with ambition. Under Mikel Arteta, the Gunners have already reached the semifinals and last season dispatched the likes of PSV and Real Madrid. Arsenal boast a free-flowing attack and impressive scoring record: 9 of their last 10 Champions League matches featured at least three goals.
Even with key absences—Saka, Havertz, and Jesus are sidelined—Arsenal’s squad remains formidable. Viktor Gyökeres, Eze, and Madueke continue to pose a threat to any defense. In their last 5 Champions League away fixtures, Arsenal have consistently traded goals with their opponents.
Probable lineups
- Athletic: Simon, Berchiche, Vivian, Areso, Paredes, Gomez, Jaureguizar, Sancet, Guruzeta, Berenguer, I. Williams
- Arsenal: Raya, Magalhães, Timber, Mosquera, Calafiori, Zubimendi, Rice, Merino, Eze, Madueke, Gyökeres
Match facts and head-to-head
- In 6 of Athletic’s last 8 European matches, the total went over 2.5 goals.
- Arsenal have scored at least two goals in 8 of their last 10 Champions League fixtures.
- The teams have never previously met in European competition.
Prediction
Both teams favor attacking football and love to score, especially on the continental stage. Despite missing some key players, their offensive potential remains high. Expect an open game with goals from both sides.
