Aryna Sabalenka vs Leylah Fernandez prediction and bets - August 30, 2025
Aryna Sabalenka
Leylah Fernandez
On August 29, Aryna Sabalenka will face Leylah Fernandez at the US Open. Here’s my take on the best bet for this matchup.
Aryna Sabalenka
The Belarusian star is having a mixed season. On the one hand, she’s reached numerous finals, captured three titles, and displayed consistent tennis. However, Sabalenka hasn’t claimed a Grand Slam this year, falling short in two major finals. She arrives in New York to defend her US Open crown. It’s worth noting that all three of her Grand Slam titles have come on hard courts.
Sabalenka kicked off her campaign with a win over Switzerland’s Masarova — 7-5, 6-1 — before dispatching Polina Kudermetova 7-6, 6-2. As the world number one, the Belarusian is among the top contenders for the title.
Leylah Fernandez
The Canadian had been enduring a tough season until she lifted the trophy in Washington, which gave her a much-needed confidence boost. Now ranked 30th in the world at just 22 years old, Fernandez is on the rise.
She opened her US Open journey by defeating compatriot Marino 6-2, 6-1, then battled past France’s Jacquemot 2-6, 6-3, 6-2. Leylah is in solid form right now; recall that she reached the US Open final in 2021, where she ultimately fell to Raducanu in the championship match.
Match facts
Sabalenka has won 28 of 33 matches on hard courts this season.
Fernandez has notched 18 wins in 29 matches this year.
Bookmakers are offering the following odds for this clash: Sabalenka win – 1.15, Fernandez win – 5.6.
Head-to-head
These two have met just once before — four years ago at this very tournament, where Fernandez pulled off a stunning semi-final upset, winning 7-6, 4-6, 6-4.
Prediction
While Sabalenka is the clear favorite, I don’t expect this to be a walk in the park for the world number one. Fernandez can be a gritty opponent when she’s on her game and is capable of challenging anyone. Sabalenka doesn’t look invincible right now, so backing the Canadian with a +5.5 games handicap looks like a solid bet.
