Another World Cup Disappointment for Senegal? Senegal vs Iraq Prediction | June 26, 2026
One of the decisive matches in Group I takes place on Friday at BMO Field in Toronto, where Senegal and Iraq will fight for third place and a slim chance of reaching the knockout stage. Both teams have lost their opening two matches, making this a must-win encounter.
Match Preview
Senegal qualified for World Cup 2026 by winning their CAF qualifying group without suffering a single defeat. Competing against Sudan, DR Congo, Togo, Mauritania and South Sudan, the Lions of Teranga relied on their trademark defensive organization led by Kalidou Koulibaly and Niakhate. Their qualification campaign was capped by a dominant 4-0 victory over Mauritania, while Sadio Mané finished as one of the team's leading scorers.
Despite arriving in North America with momentum, Senegal's World Cup campaign has quickly fallen apart. They opened with a 3-1 defeat against France before suffering a dramatic 3-2 loss to Norway. Ismaïla Sarr scored twice against the Norwegians, but defensive errors once again proved costly. With a goal difference of -3, Senegal need not only a victory but potentially a convincing one.
- Probable Senegal Lineup: Diaw, Diatta, Koulibaly, Niakhate, Diouf, Pape Gueye, Idrissa Gueye, Camara, Ismaila Sarr, Sadio Mane, Jackson.
Iraq's road to the tournament was much longer. The Lions of Mesopotamia produced a perfect record in the second round of Asian qualifying, winning all six matches against Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines with a combined score of 17-2. In the decisive round, Iraq finished second behind South Korea in a difficult group that also included Jordan, Oman, Kuwait and Palestine. Key home victories over Jordan and Oman secured a historic return to the World Cup after a 40-year absence, while striker Aymen Hussein scored 14 goals during the qualification campaign.
Iraq have also lost both group matches, falling 4-1 to Norway and 3-0 to France. However, the scoreline against France was somewhat harsh as they remained level until halftime before eventually being overwhelmed by superior quality. While qualification remains highly unlikely, Iraq still have the opportunity to record their first-ever World Cup victory.
- Probable Iraq Lineup: Basil, Doski, Ali, Hashem, Tahseen, Al Ammari, Ismaeel, Iqbal, Bayesh, Qasem, Al Hamadi.
H2H Record
This will be the first-ever meeting between Senegal and Iraq. The two nations have never faced each other in either competitive or friendly matches, making this a completely new matchup on the international stage.
Key Trends
- Senegal have conceded 6 goals in their first 2 matches.
- Iraq have conceded 7 goals in 2 group-stage games.
- Senegal must win and improve their goal difference to have any realistic playoff chance.
- This is the first meeting in history between the two nations.
Prediction
Senegal's tournament has been disappointing, but the quality difference between these squads remains significant. Players such as Mané, Sarr and Ndiaye possess the pace and creativity to cause major problems for an Iraqi defense that has already conceded seven goals in two matches. Iraq are expected to defend deep and remain competitive for long periods, but they have struggled badly against teams with superior athleticism and attacking quality. Senegal know that a narrow victory may not be enough to improve their position among the best third-placed teams, meaning they should continue attacking throughout the match. The Lions of Teranga have looked vulnerable defensively, but Iraq have yet to score at this tournament and have created very few dangerous opportunities against elite opposition. If Senegal approach this match with the right mentality, their attacking talent should eventually prove decisive. Recommended Bet: Senegal -1.5 Asian Handicap
