Another Disappointment for Turkey? Turkey vs USA Prediction | June 26, 2026
One of the final Group D matches at the 2026 FIFA World Cup will take place in Inglewood at the SoFi Stadium, where already-eliminated Turkey face group leaders USA. While the Americans have already secured their place in the knockout stage, Turkey are still searching for their first goal and first points of the tournament.
Match Preview
Turkey's return to the World Cup after a 24-year absence has quickly turned into a nightmare. Despite producing plenty of attacking football, Vincenzo Montella's side became the first team in World Cup history since 1966 to record 62 shots across their opening two matches without scoring a single goal. They lost 2-0 to Australia despite dominating possession and chances, before suffering a frustrating 1-0 defeat against Paraguay even while playing most of the match with a numerical advantage.
The qualification campaign had promised much more. After a difficult start, Turkey recovered under Montella, put together a strong winning streak, and eventually booked their place at the World Cup through the UEFA playoffs. However, their finishing has completely deserted them in North America.
- Possible Turkey Lineup: Gunok, Muldur, Demiral, Kabak, Kadioglu, Ozcan, Calhanoglu, Uzun, Guler, Yildiz, Gul.
The USA have enjoyed a perfect start to their home World Cup. Mauricio Pochettino's side opened with an impressive 4-1 victory over Paraguay before coming from behind to defeat Australia 2-1. With six points from two matches, the Americans have already secured qualification and need only a draw to guarantee first place in Group D.
Playing on home soil has clearly boosted the Americans. Their high pressing, pace on the wings, and attacking depth have caused major problems for opponents. Even if Pochettino rotates several starters ahead of the Round of 32, the overall quality of the squad remains significantly higher than that of a Turkish side already eliminated from contention.
- Possible USA Lineup: Freese, Robinson, Ream, McKenzie, Freeman, Tillman, Berhalter, McKennie, Dest, Pulisic, Pepi.
H2H Record
The head-to-head history between these nations has been remarkably competitive. The teams have met five times previously, with both sides recording two victories and one match ending in a 1-1 draw. Every single meeting saw both teams get on the scoresheet, while four of the five encounters produced over 2.5 goals. Interestingly, each of the four victories came by an identical 2-1 scoreline, highlighting how closely contested this matchup has been over the years.
Key Trends
- Turkey have lost both World Cup matches without scoring a goal.
- Turkey have produced 62 shots and 3.5 expected goals across two games but remain scoreless.
- USA have won both matches at the tournament, scoring six goals.
- The Americans have already secured qualification and can play with less pressure.
- Four of the previous five meetings between these teams produced over 2.5 goals.
- USA have scored at least two goals in both group-stage matches.
Prediction
This matchup has all the ingredients for an open and entertaining game. Turkey have nothing left to lose and will likely push aggressively for their first goal of the tournament. The problem is that their attacking approach has repeatedly exposed defensive weaknesses, something the Americans have exploited ruthlessly against both Paraguay and Australia. The hosts may rotate their squad, but the players fighting for knockout-stage minutes should still provide plenty of attacking threat. Turkey's finishing numbers suggest they are overdue a goal, while USA's aggressive style has consistently created scoring opportunities throughout the group stage. Expect Turkey to finally find the net, but the Americans should still have enough quality to come away with another positive result in front of their home crowd. Recommended Bet: Total Over 2.5 Goals
